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Weather Wisdom

Super weather continues, but with showers on the horizon

We had some new neighbors recently move two houses away so we had them over for some food and libations later in the afternoon yesterday. After that period of cloudiness during the middle of the day, the skies became clear and it was just a stellar evening to enjoy. I canít remember this many low humidity, cool mornings followed by warm afternoons this time of year. While heat and humidity are surely going to be a part of the summer, making it this far into June without any prolonged heat is fine by me.

There is a warming trend this week and you will notice the humidity creeping higher overnight and especially tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures are also going to increase with these very cool mornings becoming a thing of the past after tomorrow. The last week of June and early July typically bring hotter weather to the region. The saying ďas hot as the 4th of JulyĒ exists for a reason.

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The longer range is showing signs of heat trying to build into the northeast, but how far north and how long it will last is still very questionable. Of course the models donít agree on when or even if the heat will arrive as we start July, but there are indications of some 90 degree days ahead sometime late next week or perhaps around the 4th.

Before we get there letís address the rain issue. I am not going to start hollering about drought because we are pretty close to normal with rain this spring and early summer. However, if you are a gardener or want to keep your lawn green this summer water is starting to become an issue. Our last significant general rain was Friday the 13th followed by some widely scattered showers a few days later. Basically we are coming up on 10 days without a good dose of showers, long enough that we need them.

The image below is called a meteogram. I have shown these several times in the past as they are a great way to see temperature and precipitation predictions over a period of time. This one is from the GFS and takes us through the upcoming week. You can see the rise in temperatures through Wednesday then a bit of a fall towards the weekend and perhaps another increase late in the weekend or next week. I donít give too much credence to the specifics that far out.

GFS meteogram.png

The blue bars at the bottom of the page represent potential rainfall. I think the model is a bit slow in when the rain will fall, but probably has a good idea of how much rain could potentially accumulate. If you add up the rain we are looking at a quarter to half an inch of rain from the midweek weather system. This would be a healthy amount of precipitation and quite beneficial.

The rain looks like it ends early Thursday as long as the weather system bringing the rain keeps moving along and out to sea. If the system slows a bit, the showers could linger into Friday, but presently I am going to keep them out of the forecast after the morning commute Thursday.

Another model brings the rain close to the area by noon Wednesday. The radar prediction from the North American Model (NAM) has a solid line of showers west of Boston at 2PM Wednesday; this area will be moving east and likely reach the city for the home-bound commute. Iíll have a more concise idea of when the showers enter and exit the area tomorrow.

2pm weds.png

Iíll be updating the forecast @growingwisdom on Twitter.