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Weather Wisdom

Start of the weekend clearly better than the finish

The weather the next two days I am going to give a 9 or 10. While there might be some increase in clouds late Saturday, overall the today and tomorrow’s weather is going to be ideal. High pressure stays in control during this period, there will be low levels of humidity and abundant sunshine. We will be virtually cloud free during the next couple of days making for fantastic beach, pool or lake weather. Also with the lack of that sticky feeling in the air doing more strenuous activity like running or gardening won’t be uncomfortable.

Unfortunately, that’s the good news. The pattern undergoes a change again for Sunday and the start of next week. Let’s start with the map of total rainfall through Monday.

This map, featured below, shows how much rain is forecast to fall between now and the middle of Monday afternoon. What you should notice is there isn’t a lot of rain mostly on the order of half an inch. Now, certainly this is significant, but we are not looking at three days of washouts.

precip through Monday 1pm.png

This pattern will be similar, not identical to last week when unusually cool air moved into the Midwest and forced warm and humid air up the eastern seaboard. This pattern brings showers and thunderstorms, especially, but not limited to the afternoon. The reason they are more likely during this time is because the heating of the day helps to build the storms.

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The first round of rain will be coming from the warm air arriving Sunday, with the subsequent batches of showers due to the cool and dry air trying to move east. The warm air will have an easier time getting here. This means I am confident in the humidity and warm air moving in during Sunday along with those showers.

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The timing of the showers Sunday is a round in the morning and then a break with some hazy sun and muggy air with a few more in the afternoon and evening.

From Monday to perhaps as late as Wednesday, a cold front will play into our weather forecast. What’s complicated is the cold front, which will eventually push the tropical air mass out to sea is going to be moving very slowly. Fronts that move slowly can keep the risk of showers in the forecast until they pass your areas.

To illustrate the pace of the front, let’s move forward to Wednesday morning’s low temperatures next week. According the GFS, there will be a few readings in the upper 30s over the Berkshires where folks will need two blankets, but at that same time in the upper 60s over the outer part of Cape Cod with the air conditioners humming away.

wed am.png

Put another way, warm and humid air could still be stuck over extreme eastern areas of Cape Cod and the Islands while most of us are experiencing a cooler and drier air mass. This contrast is what’s going to keep showers in the forecast through Tuesday and perhaps, for some linger into Wednesday. There is the chance the front moves fast enough to be offshore Wednesday and that day turns out sunny and pleasant.

Over the next few days, the forecast will become clearer as to the timing of all this next week. My point here is Monday and Tuesday look unsettled, but not washouts. There will still be hours of dry weather and some sunshine. It’s going to feel warm and muggy as well. Some of the storms could be strong with tropical downpours, but others will miss them altogether.

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Provided the front moves east, the second half of next week is looking much better. Have a great weekend.