Hope, anxiety as Zimbabweans go to polls

MABVUKU, Zimbabwe -- Sitting in a tiny room lit by a single overhead bulb, three men said they had been arrested a total of 44 times by security agents working for the government of President Robert Mugabe. They showed scars on their faces, arms, and backs that they said the agents had inflicted. Yet they insist they have grown ever more determined to end Mugabe's 25-year reign.

On the eve of today's parliamentary election, these opposition campaigners said they feel emboldened by a groundswell of antigovernment sentiment after years of repressive crackdowns. Several million Zimbabweans are expected to cast ballots today in an election that many observers say could bring the first erosion of Mugabe's power since the end of white- minority rule in this southern African country in 1980.

The two major questions are whether the main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, can for the first time win a plurality of the seats at stake, and if not, whether the MDC supporters will mount protests in the country's largest cities that mirror the wave of recent popular uprisings in Ukraine, Lebanon, and Kyrgyzstan.

Many political analysts in Zimbabwe are skeptical, believing that the vote will be neither free nor fair, that Mugabe's party will keep control of Parliament -- and that the country's army and police will violently disperse any mass public demonstration that might follow.

Yet in Mabvuku, an opposition stronghold 20 miles outside the capital, Harare, feelings run deep about prospects for change. ''If the MDC doesn't win, we will do something," said Cosmas Ndira, 30, a grass-roots leader for the MDC. ''We will resist. We will go forward and fight for our country."

Last weekend, the Rev. Pius Ncube, the Catholic archbishop of Bulawayo and one of Mugabe's fiercest critics, called for a ''popular mass uprising" if voting is rigged in favor of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front, or ZANU-PF. Ncube told his Easter congregation, ''Somewhere, there shall come a resurrection for Zimbabwe."

Mugabe, who helped lead the guerrilla war against the white-led former government of Zimbabwe -- known then as Rhodesia -- called Ncube a traitor. Mugabe repeatedly has said the vote will be fair, and he has allowed in foreign journalists and election observers this time to watch the balloting. He contends that the opposition movement has no actual popular support and is a creation of those who oppose his years-long campaign to redistribute wealth from the tiny white population to the country's black majority.

But Ncube and other critics of Mugabe's rule offer a litany of reasons for their dissent, including hundreds of arrests and torture of opposition members; elections in 2000 and 2002 that international observers said were rife with voter intimidation and vote-rigging by the ruling party; four newspapers shut down in the past two years; an unemployment rate of 70 percent; and annual inflation at 400 to 600 percent.

Of the Parliament's 150 seats, 120 are up for vote today; Mugabe appoints the remaining 30. In 2000, the opposition MDC won 57 seats, a surprisingly strong showing in its first election. Mugabe's position is not at stake; he was reelected in 2002, and his term runs until 2008.

The outcome is so uncertain that diplomats and analysts are predicting multiple postelection scenarios, from the MDC winning as few as 35 seats to as many as 85.

''If this was a free and fair process, there would be an MDC tidal wave," said a Western diplomat in Harare, speaking on condition of anonymity. The diplomat added that the biggest concern is ''a manipulation of the voter rolls. A lot of tombstones will be voting."

A total of 5.7 million Zimbabweans are on voter rolls, including about 200,000 added in the past two weeks after registration for today's elections had officially ended. The statistics department at the University of Harare estimated the country of 12 million should have 4.6 million voters.

The European Union and the United States have said it is highly unlikely that the elections will be free or fair. But Reginald Matchaba-Hove, director of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, an independent group of election monitors, said he has been pleased with the relatively peaceful electoral campaign, and he applauded most of the safeguards put in place at the 8,000 polling places to reduce chances of vote-rigging.

He said ''it's going to much more difficult to fudge" the numbers compared with during previous elections, because ballots will be counted at each polling station in front of monitors. His group, made up of mostly of churches, trade unions, and student organizations, will field nearly 7,000 accredited observers.

He said Mugabe's decision to open up the electoral process gave the opposition a great opportunity. ''Mugabe is a brilliant tactician in terms of survival . . . but I think he will eat humble pie," he added.

Mugabe, 81, was not conceding anything yesterday during a rally in Glen Dora, a community on the southern outskirts of Harare that voted for an MDC candidate five years ago. Before an estimated 10,000 people, he danced along the edge of the crowd, vigorously shook hands, and smiled broadly. A dwarf dancer swung her hips for him. The crowd, with nearly everyone decked out in ZANU-PF shirts, roared.

Mugabe gave a 90-minute speech in the midday heat, reviewing minute policy accomplishments, bashing President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain for interfering in Zimbabwean politics, and saying the country had been unfairly maligned by foreign media.

''Even with our difficulties we are far better than most African countries," Mugabe said. ''I want you to show me people freer than here. They are not as free in the United States as they are here. Show me the conditions of the blacks in the United States and the standing of all the nonwhites in the economic sector. . . . It's a very rare instance in which they are treated on equal footing as whites."

Outside the grounds, Darlington Chirimanye, 35, a father of four, said he supports ZANU-PF because it has helped many people reclaim land, through property seizures from white farmers in the past five years. He also hoped both sides accepted the outcome of the vote. ''Democracy doesn't require people to go to the streets," Chirimanye said. ''It is down to the ballot. It's going to be the best election we've had."

In Mabvuku, people expressed a mixture of hope and resignation.

Albert Gatsi, 58, a security officer at a hotel, said he and his dog were badly beaten by security officers after the 2000 elections because his family worked with the opposition. ''This Mugabe regime even beats dogs," he said, with disgust in his voice. But he added that even if ZANU-PF rigs the election, people will think twice about engaging in a revolution.

''People have not taken to the streets before because they are afraid of the army," Gatsi said. ''And if we have a demonstration now, they will shoot -- with live ammunition."