Zimbabwe opposition retains parliamentary gains

Recount shows no change in disputed races

Robert Mugabe has been accused of using delays, fraud, and violence to hold onto power. Even if he retains the presidency, he will have to deal with defiant lawmakers, the recount indicated. (ALEXANDER JOE/AFP/Getty Images/File)

JOHANNESBURG - President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe saw his hold on power weaken yesterday, as his party failed to make any inroads in a recount of parliamentary elections and some loyalists expressed pessimism about his chances in a presidential runoff.

The Zimbabwe Election Commission yesterday announced the results of 18 of 23 parliamentary contests being recounted, nearly a month after bitterly disputed elections appeared to give the opposition the edge over the 84-year-old president.

Mugabe's ZANU-PF party needed to claw back nine seats to get control of parliament, but none of the results in the 18 was overturned, destroying any hope the ruling party had of winning the Parliament.

"It's really a heavy blow," said a senior ZANU-PF official and key Mugabe ally who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Now that there is no change in the recount, I believe that this now gives people second thoughts."

Although some people in Mugabe's inner circle appeared determined to cling to power at all costs, the official said many in the ruling party saw no hope of victory if a second round is held in the presidential election and had given up hope of retaining power. Most saw their best hope as a government of national unity.

Official results in the presidential vote might be released tomorrow. Ruling party officials have conceded publicly that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai garnered more votes than Mugabe in the first round.

The opposition maintains that Tsvangirai won outright with no need for a runoff, a position not supported by independent electoral monitors.

Since the elections, hundreds of opposition activists and supporters have been beaten and seriously injured. Hundreds more have been arrested.

"I don't think anything will change the direction of the presidential elections. This is what we are seeing on the ground," the ZANU-PF official said, adding that widespread hunger has made it almost impossible for Mugabe to win.

But he warned that top military and security officials remained deeply skeptical about Tsvangirai, and that there was a real threat of a military coup or descent into civil conflict.

"The only way to solve the problem without bloodshed is that both parties must agree to form a government of national unity," he said.

Jonathon Moyo, an independent lawmaker who once was close to Mugabe, said there was now a broad consensus that the best outcome was a negotiated transition, with Mugabe stepping down.

But he said the political situation was so dynamic it was pointless to try to predict what would happen.

Other possibilities were that a presidential runoff could be held, or that Tsvangirai could boycott a runoff and the authorities would then declare Mugabe the winner.

"And then we would have a political stalemate," Moyo said, "because a Mugabe victory will not be accepted by anyone."

Wavering support for Zimbabwe in the Southern African Development Community also has weakened resolve in the ruling party. The 14-nation group last week refused to allow a Chinese ship with a cargo of weapons unload and transport the cargo to Zimbabwe.

Angola, an ally of Zimbabwe, said yesterday that the Chinese ship would not be allowed unload the weapons while it docked in Luanda, the Angolan capital, The New York Times reported. Angola said it would allow the ship to unload only the cargo meant for Angola.

America's top envoy in Africa was in the region yesterday to rally support for democracy in Zimbabwe. Jendayi Frazer, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, visited Angola last week and was headed for Zambia.

Patrick Chinamasa, Zimbabwe's justice minister and a Mugabe loyalist, criticized Frazer for her statements last week backing assertions that Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai beat Mugabe in the presidential vote, Zimbabwean state media reported yesterday.

Chinamasa called Frazer's remarks "patently false, inflammatory, irresponsible, and uncalled-for."