Opposition party suppressed ahead of Egypt elections

With a government crackdown on its main rival, the Muslim Brotherhood, there is little doubt that the ruling National Democratic Party will retain its grip on power.

But the election could bolster the chances of Mubarak’s son Gamal succeeding him, depending on which factions within the ruling party perform well.

The vote and its aftermath are likely to be a harbinger of how the Arab world’s largest state, a key US ally, will handle its first change of guard in decades.

Hosni Mubarak, 82, who has been in power since 1981, has been treated for undisclosed ailments in recent months.

“The results of these elections seem to be preordained,’’ said Ammar Ali Hassan, a political analyst. “It’s all part of a chain of events to shape the authority for the post-Mubarak period.’’

In recent weeks, the government has silenced critical media outlets and jailed hundreds of members of the Muslim Brotherhood, the country’s largest opposition bloc, which has been outlawed but fields candidates as independents.

This week in Alexandria, the country’s second-largest city, a judge ordered the cancellation of the election in nine of 10 districts, citing the high number of disqualified candidates. Most belong to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian officials have ignored calls from Washington and others to suspend an emergency law that gives security forces wide powers to suppress rallies and demonstrations.

Officials have also refused to allow international observers to monitor the polls.

The government has stifled political participation in recent years through legal maneuvers, critics said.

After a decade during which Egyptians saw glimmers of hope for political reforms, the opposition is weaker and rudderless on the eve of election day, according to analysts and politicians outside the ruling party.

“The combination of restrictive laws, intimidation, and arbitrary arrests is making it extremely difficult for citizens to choose freely the people they want to represent them in Parliament,’’ Joe Stark, the Middle East and North Africa director for Human Rights Watch, said in a report issued this week. “Repression by the government makes free and fair elections extremely unlikely this weekend.’’

The ruling party presented more than one candidate for several seats, which analysts interpreted as a sign of growing internal rifts between the party’s old guard and a younger, probusiness faction.

In a speech Nov. 10, Mubarak said his government would continue to pursue economic growth “with an eye on the least privileged and accompanied by a concerted effort to secure a trickle-down effect.’’

Other than that speech, Mubarak has kept a low profile. His son, however, has been unusually visible, making the case in a series of television interviews that the party needs a shake-up.

“Circumstances have changed,’’ Gamal Mubarak said in a recent television interview. “Any party, not just the NDP, if it doesn’t develop itself, develop its mechanisms and political discourse, as well as its internal workings, cannot continue.’’

Anonymous ruling party officials have been quoted as saying the elder Mubarak intends to run for reelection next year. Many here are not convinced and see the latest blitz of Gamal Mubarak appearances as an effort to boost his standing, particularly within segments of the ruling class, such as the military, that view him warily.