N. Korea, Iran seen as more receptive to US

WASHINGTON -- Bush administration officials believe that the hard-line governments in Iran and North Korea are showing a new readiness to negotiate with the United States, opening perhaps the biggest opportunity to solve some longstanding differences since President Bush labeled Tehran and Pyongyang as members of an "axis of evil" two years ago.

The administration credits its own hard-line policies -- on display in Iraq -- with forcing concessions, including Iran's acceptance last fall of international arms inspectors and new signals from North Korea last week that it might be willing to end its nuclear weapons program.

But the administration also has softened its approach in recent months to dealing with governments it once derided as tyrants and enemies of freedom. It signaled its approval Friday for a private US delegation to visit North Korea's most secretive nuclear facility and was talking directly to the Iranian government last week over earthquake relief, although diplomatic relations with Tehran were severed more than two decades ago.

Along with the recent agreement by Libyan dictator Moammar Khadafy to forgo weapons of mass destruction -- the result of nine months of secret negotiations -- the US overtures to Iran and North Korea seem to represent a shift in Bush's approach to preventing the spread of catastrophic weapons and terrorism, policy analysts said.

"There is a clear message that we are willing to use force to remove these dangers, but are willing to negotiate solutions and provide rewards for good behavior," said Joseph Cirincione, a weapons proliferation specialist at the nonpartisan Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "We may be coming to the right combination here."

Iran agreed last month to more-intrusive inspections of its nuclear program and has struck a decidedly conciliatory note toward Washington after a massive earthquake killed at least 30,000 Iranians on Dec. 26. US aid teams quickly dispatched by the White House in a highly symbolic gesture are working under the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard, the powerful security arm of Iran's ruling clerics.

North Korea last week seemed willing to provide US specialists with access to its most secretive nuclear site at Yongbyon -- which has been closed to international monitors for more than a year -- and has been receptive to a new round of six-nation negotiations. After isolating North Korea for much of the first two years of the Bush administration, Washington engaged in a first round of multilateral talks with North Korea last September and is planning to reconvene the discussions with North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia early this year.

But fierce differences remain and administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, cautioned against predictions of imminent victories for US policy. Iran continues to support terrorist groups that oppose Israel, they said, and harbors some members of the Al Qaeda network headed by Osama bin Laden. On New Year's Day, Bush said he appreciated the new openness but said Tehran "must turn over Al Qaeda in their custody."

Meanwhile, North Korea's intentions remain unclear in the minds of many conservatives in the Bush administration. Washington thinks Pyongyang is continuing to sell nuclear and missile technologies to the highest bidder, including a failed deal with the former government of Iraq before the US-led invasion in March.

Nevertheless, after international condemnation of the hard-line US approach, the administration thinks the time is right to begin dealing with these regimes. And countries that are developing weapons of mass destruction are coming under increased international pressure as well, according to administration officials, international security specialists, and former diplomats.

Some credit goes to the muscular US approach, the so-called Bush doctrine of preemptive defense, threatening "rogue states" with military force. These countries "can choose to pursue WMD at great peril, cost and international isolation," the White House said in announcing the Libya deal Dec. 19.

Robert Einhorn, former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation in the Clinton administration, said the White House's hard line has prompted European nations and Russia to assert more pressure on countries with growing weapons programs. Europeans played key roles behind the scenes in crafting both the Iran and Libya agreements.

"A country like Iran sees its future reintegrating into the world," Einhorn said. "International pressures may have a useful effect. Those pressures are largely what motivated them to suspend their [uranium] enrichment activities and sign the additional protocol" to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Among senior policy analysts, disagreement exists about whether the Bush administration's willingness to go to war in Iraq, and its threats to other nations with suspected weapons programs, laid the groundwork for today's negotiations.

Peter Brookes, who has worked as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific affairs in the current Bush administration and is now a scholar with the conservative Heritage Foundation, said the recent positive movements "could be a reaction to the Bush administration's strong policy on weapons of mass destruction and rogue regimes such as North Korea, Iran, and Syria."

But increasingly, Washington's tough talk has been combined with a dose of diplomacy, including enlisting allies -- such as China, in the case of North Korea -- to do some of the heavy lifting.

Lawrence Korb, assistant secretary of defense in the Reagan administration, said this growing international cooperation, not simply the Bush doctrine, has yielded the most fruit: "Argentina and Brazil gave up their pursuit of nuclear weapons [in the 1970s and 1980s] when the international community said: `Here are the rules. If you want the good things, you have to abide by them.' "

The mix of carrots and sticks is increasingly a part of administration policy.

"All of these actions by the United States and our allies have sent an unmistakable message to regimes that seek or possess weapons of mass destruction," Bush said last month. "Those weapons do not bring influence or prestige. They bring isolation and otherwise unwelcome consequences."

But in a rhetorical departure from his controversial `axis of evil' language in January 2002, he said, "Another message should be equally clear: Leaders who abandon the pursuit of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, and the means to deliver them, will find an open path to better relations with the United States and other free nations."

Robert Schlesinger of the Globe staff contributed to this report.