Sharon could face political rebellion

JERUSALEM -- Prosettler politicians threatened yesterday to bring down Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's government if he moves ahead with plans to dismantle settlements in the Gaza Strip, while the Israeli leader promised to drop the right-wing parties from his coalition if they stood in his way.

The political turmoil erupted a day after Sharon said his aides were already drawing up plans to evacuate most of Gaza's 7,500 Israeli settlers, possibly by this summer. Ahmed Qurei, the Palestinian prime minister, yesterday welcomed the announcement, calling it "good news."

But while Sharon appeared strong enough to fend off a challenge from the far-right factions in parliament, analysts said he could be vulnerable to a rebellion in his own Likud party, especially if it were led by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Sharon, responding to critics yesterday, said withdrawing settlers from Gaza would help Israel's economy, development and security in the coming years.

"Apart from the settlers, this matter hurts me personally more than anyone," he said in a public address. "This truly pains me greatly but this is my responsibility and therefore I said what I said and . . . I intend to carry it out."

Sharon, who has been prime minister for three years, presides over a broad center-right coalition. Two factions in the alliance, the National Religious Party and the National Union Party, have already indicated they would bolt the coalition if Sharon proves serious about pulling settlers out of Gaza.

Effi Eitam, who heads the National Religious Party and serves as housing minister in Sharon's Cabinet, said he's waiting to hear what Sharon promises President Bush when the Israeli leader visits Washington later this month.

"There's no doubt that a public international commitment of this sort is the beginning of the end of this government," Eitam said yesterday.

Sharon controls enough seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, to maintain a slim majority if both right-wing parties leave.

Most analysts say he would ask the opposition Labor party to join his government, turning it into the kind of left-right coalition he presided over during his first two years as prime minister.

The prospects of that scenario transpiring got a lift yesterday when Labor voted to keep Shimon Peres as its interim leader for the next 22 months. Peres, the 80-year-old architect of peace treaties with the Palestinians, is believed to be eager to revive Labor's partnership with Sharon.

Most Labor party officials expressed skepticism that Sharon would really withdraw from Gaza. The Israeli leader has made a series of dovish remarks in the past year without acting on them. But Peres said yesterday he saw reasons to take Sharon seriously.

"Sharon's declarations have a cumulative weight," Peres said at a party conference. "Another word, another declaration, another announcement, and this is already a path from which there is no turning back."

Peres said Labor would back Sharon in parliament "as long as he travels on that path" of dismantling settlements and withdrawing from Palestinian territory.

The mixture of caution and anticipation also characterized the Palestinian response to Sharon's initiative. Qurei said only a withdrawal from Gaza and the West Bank would ease the conflict. But he applauded the announcement.

"Of course, it is good news for us," Qurei told Voice of Palestine radio in his first public remarks on Sharon's announcement. "We need to see that they have left all of the Gaza Strip and that all of the Gaza Strip has become Palestinian liberated land."

A new coalition with Labor and the centrist Shinui party would give Sharon 74 seats in the 120-member Knesset -- a hefty majority by Israeli standards.

But if 14 or more Likud lawmakers rebel, Sharon could face a severe political crisis.

"If you look at the Likud faction in parliament, it is a very hawkish faction," said Yossi Olmert, a political analyst and Likud party member. "I would say that around 25 of the 38 Likud lawmakers are opposed to withdrawing from Gaza. But they're quiet for now. They want to see if the evacuation will really happen."

Olmert said that to a large extent, Netanyahu holds the key to Sharon's future. "He's the only one who could be a leader of the rebels. If he backs Sharon, it would make life much easier for the prime minister."

Netanyahu has not commented publicly on Sharon's plan since it was announced on Monday. But another Likud deputy considered a Netanyahu loyalist said yesterday that his support for a Gaza withdrawal would depend on other measures linked to the initiative.

"It should be coupled with a major offensive move like deporting Arafat so that it's clear we're not withdrawing out of weakness," said Yuval Steinitz, chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

Steinitz said Likud hawks would like to see Sharon secure Washington's support for the barrier Israel is building in the West Bank and possibly for the annexation of some West Bank land in exchange for dismantling settlements in the Gaza Strip.