Philippines vote focuses on poverty

MOLINO, Philippines -- President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo pressed through a cheering crowd in this village of former slum dwellers, many outfitted in T-shirts, flip-flops, and "Gloria for President" caps. She wore a turquoise pantsuit, matching pumps, and a campaigner's smile.

"Gloria! Gloria! Gloria!" they chanted, as she promised one recent afternoon that the government would dig a well to bring water to the parched community in the dusty plains south of Manila.

If Arroyo, the former vice president who is serving out the final three years of deposed president Joseph Estrada's term, is to win tomorrow's presidential election, she will need the support of voters such as these. About 44 percent of the country's 84 million people live on $2 a day or less, according to the World Bank.

Easing poverty, corruption, and a staggering deficit are central issues in the election, which many analysts consider the most important in modern times for this former US colony, still the strongest American ally in the region. Interviews with housewives, retirees, business people, and academics reveal a sense of drift and cynicism in the Philippines, and a longing for leadership.

But many of the poor are set to vote for Arroyo's rival, Fernando Poe Jr., a taciturn high school dropout whose main claim to the presidency is film roles in which he plays an underdog who vanquishes legions of enemies with a magic sword.

This election may lack the drama of the 1986 vote, which helped lead to the popular revolt that toppled dictator Ferdinand Marcos, but it is far more important, argued Joseph Mussomeli, charge d'affaires at the US Embassy, who served in Manila as a consular officer from 1984 to 1986.

"It is very likely the Philippines' last chance for getting on the right economic track and for imprinting on its national psyche that it is a democracy, a viable democracy," Mussomeli said.

"There is a lot at stake in this election -- our national pride, our national existence," said the Rev. Nonoy De Las Penas, a Roman Catholic priest in Zamboanga City.

The country's budget deficit reached $3.6 billion last year, and its debt is estimated at $100 billion. Foreign direct investment totaled $319 million last year, compared with $1.8 billion in 1992, largely because of political uncertainties. Last year, soldiers backed by politicians tried to overthrow Arroyo's government. In March, Islamic militants said to be planning an attack were arrested.

The Philippines now lags behind Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia in economic performance. The population growth rate of 2.4 percent is among Asia's highest in a staunchly Catholic country that has outlawed abortion. With unemployment at 11 percent, about 1 million Filipinos go abroad each year in search of job opportunities.

Arroyo and Poe are the top two in a field of five, though new polls show Arroyo with a growing lead.

Arroyo, 57, a former economics professor and the daughter of a former president, has never quite achieved an easy rapport with ordinary Filipinos. But with the help of an image consultant -- the sister of Benigno Aquino, the opposition leader assassinated in 1983 -- Arroyo is learning to drop her lecturer's tone and speak more simply, be more expressive, and smile more.

On this afternoon, about a thousand villagers turned out, reaching out to hug and kiss her.

"I will stick with Arroyo," said Estella Colocado, a 56-year-old beautician.

But in a country that loves fairy tales and saviors, Poe, 64, carries appeal. A friend of Estrada, also a movie star, Poe is known as "Da King." He has largely acquired Estrada's voter base, which was outraged over Estrada's ouster by a middle-class revolt. These voters see Arroyo as an interloper.

Poe has no record of public service, quotes lines from his movies, and has declined to debate. But many among the poor have projected their hopes onto Poe's underdog screen persona.

"I want change in the government," said George Sarabia, 56, a cook wearing a T-shirt bearing Poe's initials, FPJ. Under Arroyo, he said, "the poor become poorer."

On a recent evening in Zamboanga City, on Mindanao, Poe made a triumphal visit. Banners proclaimed: "FPJ Country." Mindanao is one of the country's poorest areas, plagued by bomb attacks by Islamic and other militants and clashes between the military and Muslim separatists.

"We need a long-term peace program," Poe said at the rally in a square named after a World War I-era US Army general, John Pershing. "If there is peace, there is development."

Poe told the crowd of 10,000 that he wanted to help farmers and fishermen have jobs so that there is "food security." He said he would end corruption.

But as the campaign moves to a close, some Filipinos feel Poe is losing momentum. His image took a hit recently when he became angry on-camera with a female television reporter.

His candidacy has spooked the business community, which fears that a Poe win would further discourage investment. "He will be beholden to a very few confidants that are not economic managers," said Raul Concepcion, chairman of Concepcion Industries, which makes air conditioners and refrigerators. "Frankly, with his total lack of experience and today's global conditions, it will be a total wreck."