Canada's leader to call vote despite his party's troubles
OTTAWA -- Prime Minister Paul Martin signaled yesterday that he would call an election for next month, even as an opinion poll showed his Liberal government is likely to lose its majority in Parliament.
Martin's office said the prime minister would hold a formal meeting with Canada's head of state today, required by the constitution before an election is called. Aides have said for weeks that the vote will be June 28.
A patronage scandal has cut support for the Liberals, but if they do lose their parliamentary majority, they could stay in power by forming an alliance with a smaller party. Coalition governments in Canada rarely survive more than two years.
An Ipsos-Reid poll for Toronto's Globe and Mail newspaper said backing for the Liberals had dropped 4 percentage points in just two days to 35 percent, well below the 40 percent level seen as necessary to win most of the 301 seats in Parliament.
The opposition right-wing Conservatives remained at 26 percent, while support for the left-leaning New Democrats, the party most likely to support the Liberals in Parliament, rose to 18 percent.
Pollsters say calling an election makes no sense, given the increasing anger at the Liberals after a decade in power. But Martin aides, putting a brave face on the polls, say the vote has to be held now before the party suffers more damage from the scandal over how $73 million in government funds was funneled to firms linked to the Liberals.
''The polls have been remarkably consistent for the past four weeks. We are in and around 38 to 40 percent, right on the brink of majority territory," one of Martin's top advisers said yesterday.
Ipsos-Reid said Liberal fortunes were fading because of a drop in support in Ontario, which accounts for 103 seats in Parliament. The Liberals hold 95 of Ontario's seats.
Ontario's Liberal government, which had promised not to raise taxes, this week issued a budget doing just that. The poll, taken after the budget was unveiled, showed backing for Martin's party in Ontario had fallen to 42 percent from 49 percent. The Conservatives stayed flat at 28 percent.
Before the scandal broke in February, Martin aides predicted they would lose around 20 seats in Ontario but make up the losses in French-speaking Quebec.
But outrage over the affair slashed support for the Liberals there. A poll for the Montreal newspaper La Presse yesterday showed 34 percent of Quebecers backed the Liberals, compared with 42 percent for the separatist Bloc Quebecois. 