US intelligence assessment on Iraq in line with global reports

WASHINGTON -- A highly classified US intelligence assessment that lays out dismal predictions for the future of Iraq -- including the possibility of civil war by 2005 -- mirrors assessments that are being made by analysts around the world, according to diplomats and members of the intelligence community.

''You don't have to have classified information and sensitive reporting to come to some kind of judgment," said Judith Yaphe, a former CIA analyst who specializes on Iraq at the National Defense University. ''Anybody can come to those conclusions if they know enough about Iraq and have a brain."

The National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush lays out three possible scenarios for the future of Iraq, a US intelligence official confirmed to the Globe yesterday: The best case is that the war-torn nation maintains a fragile political stability; a second scenario envisions political fragmentation that prevents the creation of a stable democracy; the worst-case scenario is that civil war erupts in Iraq.

The document, about 50 pages long, represents the first broad consensus of the US intelligence community on Iraq since before the invasion. Details of the document were first reported by The New York Times.

A CIA official declined to comment on the assessment, drawn up by the National Intelligence Council this summer to examine the possible outcomes in Iraq's transition period.

But the official said the report, ordered by outgoing CIA director George J. Tenet before he resigned in July, relies on classified intelligence sources from various agencies. It was approved by acting CIA director John McLaughlin and the heads of the other intelligence agencies.

A Western diplomat in Washington who is familiar with some of her country's intelligence assessments on Iraq said the US intelligence estimate seemed to be in line with her country's predictions.

The three scenarios described in the US intelligence document closely mirror public predictions released last week by the Royal Institute of International Affairs, a British think tank also known as Chatham House.

That 26-page report, which also focuses on the transition period that began June 28, when Washington formally handed over sovereignty, predicts that the best possible outcome the United States can hope for is that the interim Iraqi government manages to ''hold together" the various factions of the Shi'ite majority, the Sunni Arab minority, Kurds, and secular Iraqis in a delicate balancing act.

A second scenario predicted by the Chatham House is that ethnic tensions could pull Iraqi society apart, with intervention from Iraq's Turkish, Kurdish, Sunni, and Shi'ite neighbors. The worst scenario, similar to the US document, predicts that Iraq could fragment by the end of 2005.

Material from the Associated Press was used in this report. Farah Stockman can be reached at fstockman@globe.com.