Bin Laden's words echo US politics

WASHINGTON -- Osama bin Laden, threatening a "war of attrition" that will lead America to "bankruptcy," continued to stir the political pot on the eve of the US election, with the full translation of his most recent message depicting the leader of Al Qaeda as an astute observer of American politics.

In attacking US policies, bin Laden cited everything from controversial antiterrorism legislation to the ballooning federal budget deficit and charged that the Iraq war was launched to steal Middle East oil and enrich President Bush's supporters, according to the transcript of the full 18-minute tape released by the Arabic television network Al Jazeera.

The tirade appeared to be an attempt to affect the outcome of today's vote, but it is unlikely to have any measurable impact on the US election, specialists on terrorism said. Indeed, they believe the intended audience is not the American public, but the Islamic world, where bin Laden is attempting to increase his stature as the defender of Arab and Muslim aspirations.

"People have such strong feelings about this election that I don't think this will have any impact," said Daniel Benjamin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "It says he is still out there, which may remind people that President Bush hasn't captured him, but others will say he is picking on my president so I feel more loyal."

Peter Bergen, an Al Qaeda specialist who interviewed bin Laden in 1996, said that for all his apparent knowledge of campaign issues, bin Laden "doesn't understand America. There is tons of interesting information in [the message], but at the end of the day he's a total zero" when it comes to getting American voters to pay attention to what a self-described mass murderer has to say.

Benjamin, a terrorism specialist who served on the National Security Council, believes bin Laden is trying to position himself so he can assert to the world's Muslims that he affected the outcome of the US election no matter how it turns out. If Senator John F. Kerry wins, bin Laden can say his message swayed American voters, while Bush's reelection can be used to confirm his warnings that America is bent on controlling the Muslim world, he said.

"I don't think he is moving hearts and minds here," Benjamin said. "He is moving them in the Muslim world."

Nonetheless, the full tape demonstrates a surprising grasp of US political discourse, suggesting that bin Laden probably has access to the Internet or some other ability to stay in tune with daily developments.

He said that Al Qaeda was winning the war on terrorism and contractors "like Halliburton and its kind" were benefiting from Bush's decision to invade Iraq and Afghanistan, while the losers were "the American people and their economy," a key point of debate between Bush and Kerry.

He referred to the "emergency" funding that has been requested by the White House to continue funding operations in post-war Afghanistan and Iraq, according to copies of the English language transcript provided by both Al Jazeera and the CIA. He said it was evidence of the effectiveness of Al Qaeda's strategy: "bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy."

The controversial Patriot Act passed after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks was also a target. Bin Laden said it smacked of "dictatorship" and "suppression of freedoms . . . under the pretense of fighting terrorism."

The full videotaped message, the first of its kind in more than three years, may also offer some clues to how the Saudi fugitive is operating in hiding, according to Bergen, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation.

"It implied to me he is not in some very remote location. . . . This guy seems to have some Internet connection. I think he wrote the speech himself. It shows further confidence on his part and that he is extremely well informed."

But while it may show bin Laden's understanding of US political headlines, the tape is more significant for what it says about bin Laden's public relations strategy in the Muslim world, the specialists said. Ultimately, it is bin Laden's own campaign, not his impact on the US election, that should be of most concern, Benjamin said.