Dim view of Mideast democracy

WASHINGTON -- A new Pentagon study paints a bleak picture of the prospects for creating democracy in the Middle East, declaring that US attempts to bring free elections to the Muslim world risk stoking internal religious conflicts and giving rise to further anti-American sentiments.

The study, by two researchers at the US Army War College, also concludes that the failure so far to successfully counter the misinterpretations of Islamic law espoused by militants has undercut the war on terrorism.

The report notes that American military officers and diplomats can improve the chances of a peaceful outcome by developing a deeper understanding of Islamic history. But American officials should ''factor in the possibility of failure" in their efforts to subdue militant and suicidal forms of Islam.

President Bush has described the war on terrorism and the US invasion of Iraq as part of a broader US strategy to bring democracy to the Middle East and the wider Muslim world.

Yet the war college paper says policymakers need to find new ways to strengthen moderate Islamic voices -- or risk fanning the flames of a militant religious movement that has grown in the three years since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

The authors warned US officials they shouldn't presume to dictate to the Islamic world how to bypass militant thought.

''Indeed, heated debate and conflicts between Muslims on the role of religion in their politics and societies likely will continue for many decades," predicted the authors, Navy Lieutenant Commander Youssef H. Aboul-Enein and Sherifa Zuhur, an Islamic scholar serving as a visiting professor. ''If democratization is to proceed, these conflicts may become even more pronounced and the results may not be to the secular Westerner's taste."

The paper was designed as a primer on Islamic thought for Pentagon policymakers, laying out the religion's history from the time of the Prophet Mohammed in the seventh century to the growth of Islamic terrorism in the late 20th century.

The study rebuts theories that Islam is by nature a violent religion; that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the main engine for the growth in anti-Western sentiment; and that widespread poverty has bred militance.

The authors point out that throughout its 1,400-year history Islam was a largely peaceful religion that waged war primarily in self-defense. And while solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and reducing poverty would relieve some of the underlying frustration in the Muslim world, addressing these alone ''will not solve the expansion of Islamic radicalism."

Aboul-Enein is a Navy officer who has studied Islamic theory since 2000, focusing on the 1,400-year history of Islamic commentary that runs counter to the jihadist ideologies espoused by Al Qaeda. Zuhur has spent the last 20 years interviewing Islamic militants from Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinian territories who use the Koran to support constant conflict between Islam and the West.

The authors say that serious misconceptions of Islam have proven to a major obstacle to US objectives in the Islamic world because they has stymied efforts to strengthen the hand of moderate voices who could counter extremists misrepresenting the religion in madrasas, or religious schools, from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Saudi Arabia.

''Understanding the importance of the classic Islamic texts and the ultimate goals of Islam itself -- peace and social equity -- will enable us to fight terrorism" through a more tailored message, the authors write. ''It will also permit us to better comprehend the views and options of our Muslim allies."

Another specialist agreed. ''In order to understand something you need to understand its history," said Ali Al-Ahmed, president of the Saudi Institute in Washington, which promotes moderate Islamic ideals. ''It is not the whole answer but it is a big part of the answer."

The authors assert that US policymakers must undertake efforts to understand the complexity of Islamic law and the debates raging among Muslims themselves about the role of their religious faith. However, ''this does not mean that policymakers should direct the process or outcome of these debates," they caution.

At the same time, the United States requires a better grasp of how terrorist groups ''manipulate, hide, and deemphasize aspects of Islamic history, law, and Koranic verses" that do not rationalize their worldview.

Such a reemphasis would recognize that what Al Qaeda and its followers ''fear most are Islamic laws, histories, and principles that do not conform to their militant ideologies," according to the study.

And US military forces, such as those occupying Iraq, have a key role to play. ''As Islamic militants quote and violently interpret verses from the Koran . . . US and allied forces should not plead ignorance, but achieve a higher level of familiarity with religious and other aspects of Muslim culture. US and allied forces may better comprehend the specific dilemmas of our Muslim allies if they are familiar with the messages of jihadist and moderate Islam."

The paper calls for ''a long-term strategy that involves discrediting Islamic militant thought" coupled with encouraging Muslims ''to mount a major ideological campaign to counter those who have hijacked Islam with their destructive interpretation of Islamic scripture. Comprehending this endeavor will be vital to any strategy that seeks to dissuade young Muslims from the nihilism of Islamic militancy."

It says that Islam's ''emphasis on justice, moderation, and restraint long predates our era. Hopefully, it will bring Muslims closer to other faiths and heal the fissures created by the extremists' brand of Islamic warfare."

But the authors also warn that the spread of Islamic militancy may not be stoppable for years to come. As a result, it urges officials to face what might be considered unthinkable: ''the possibility of failure in the battle against jihadist sentiment, while working as assiduously as possible for a different outcome."

Bryan Bender can be reached at bender@globe.com.