Insurgents infiltrating coalition, US says

WASHINGTON -- Iraqi insurgents and their informants have been infiltrating US and coalition organizations, Iraqi security units, and political parties in growing numbers, posing a daunting challenge to efforts to defeat the guerrillas and create a stable Iraqi state, according to US military officials, Iraq specialists, and a new study of Iraqi security forces.

Officials in Baghdad insist they are putting systems in place to review new recruits for the Iraqi security forces and Iraqi and foreign workers who mingle daily with large numbers of American and allied troops. Yesterday, US authorities announced that a new assessment team will conduct a wide-ranging probe into security lapses at US and Iraqi government facilities.

But the apparent suicide attack that killed 21 people inside a US Army base in northern Iraq this week brought home what US officials have quietly been warning for months: insurgents in Iraq, including Iraqis and foreign fighters, are increasingly operating within their midst.

And in many cases, they appear to be gathering better intelligence on US military movements and the activities of the new Iraqi government than coalition forces are gathering on guerrilla plans.

''Penetration of Iraqi security and military forces may be the rule, not the exception," according to a draft version of a study of Iraqi security forces by a senior Pentagon consultant.

Military analysts concur that such infiltration is a worsening threat that is undermining US and Iraqi efforts to stand up viable security forces and to protect coalition troops from increasingly deadly attacks.

''There are more and more infiltrators out there," said Army Colonel Paul Hughes, who served as a political adviser to US occupation authorities in Iraq. ''It is the nature of an insurgent."

Hughes said that a March 11, 2003, memo recovered from Saddam Hussein's secret intelligence service, the Mukabarat, ordered that all its files be destroyed in the event of a US invasion. He said the loss of that intelligence material was a major setback for the US-led coalition as it began the process of weeding out individuals with ties to the former government or its security services.

''To vet properly over there, you have to have some sort of institution to keep track of Iraqis," according to Hughes. ''There is none of that over there."

The new study, by Anthony Cordesman, a Pentagon adviser who interviewed numerous US and Iraqi officials in Iraq, draws worrisome parallels between the Iraq insurgency and the failed US military effort to battle the Communist insurgency in Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s.

''Developments in Iraq indicate that the US faces a repetition of its experience in Vietnam in the sense that as various insurgent factions organize, they steadily improve their intelligence and penetration of organizations," according to a draft version of the study, ''Strengthening Iraqi Military and Security Forces," to be published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The Globe obtained a copy of the draft report.

In Vietnam, US forces suffered dramatic losses at the hands of Vietcong guerrillas who were able to slip spies into areas where US military forces and their South Vietnamese allies were operating, the study notes. Family and other close ties between guerrillas and local civilians combined to give the Vietcong a bird's-eye view of US fire bases and troop movements, allowing them to launch precise and deadly attacks on American infantry units and installations.

''Like Vietnam, Iraq is a warning that hostile [human intelligence] sources are often pushed into providing data because of family ties, a fear of being on the losing side, direct and indirect threats," Cordesman concluded. ''In Iraq's case, it seems likely that family, clan, and ethnic loyalties have made many supposedly loyal Iraqis become at least part-time sources" for the insurgency.

''The end result may be an extremely high degree of transparency on US, Iraqi government, aid, and every other aspect of Iraqi operations," according to the report. ''This enables them to locate soft targets, hit at key points in terms of Iraq's economy and aid projects, and time their attacks to points of exceptional vulnerability."

The suicide bomber who struck at lunchtime inside an Army mess hall in Mosul on Tuesday, killing 18 Americans and three Iraqis, was apparently wearing an Iraqi Army uniform, strong evidence that he was either an Iraqi soldier or someone with access to the base posing as one.

US commanders in Iraq said they are constantly weighing their review procedures to keep insurgents or those sympathetic to their cause from getting access to information that would help insurgents attack coalition forces or evade US-led operations designed to capture or kill them.

For example, when hiring Iraqi workers for US dining halls and other support work for the military, each applicant is assigned a sponsoring unit, according to Army Captain Darren Luke, a US military spokesman in Baghdad. Names are checked against a database to determine if they have any record. They are then screened by an investigator before being given badges or other identification allowing them to work on US bases. Each individual is reevaluated annually, according to the current guidelines, or if developments warrant a reexamination.

The new security assessment, to be conducted by Army Brigadier General Richard P. Formica, who investigated abuses at Iraq's notorious Abu Ghraib prison, will review the assessments for Iraqi and foreign workers as well as the process for recruiting members to Iraq's nascent Army, National Guard, and police forces. Pentagon officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Mosul investigation is likely to cover nationwide vetting procedures.

Moreover, tackling the problem in Iraq may prove even more difficult than it was in Vietnam, where the North Vietnamese Communists ultimately took over South Vietnam, analysts say, because there is a high premium for Iraqi participation in the nation-building effort, and the United States simply cannot cut local ties.

''It's far worse than Vietnam," said retired Army Colonel David Hackworth, who spent five years as an infantry officer in Vietnam and now writes about Iraq. ''In Vietnam, we did not allow civilians on our tactical fire bases. We learned the hard way that most of the civilians worked for the enemy and they were there to spy."

In Iraq, he said, ''A lot of those people go home at night, and just like Vietcong provide intelligence to the guerrillas -- to a brother, a cousin, or someone who comes by the house."

Widespread infiltration does not only provide insurgents with critical intelligence about possible US and Iraqi targets. It also potentially compromises US and Iraqi operations aimed at locating insurgent hide-outs and arms supplies, according to Andrew Krepinevich, a specialist in counterinsurgency and president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington. ''Insurgents can be forewarned of any plans we might have to defeat them," he said.

Increasing security at US and Iraqi facilities to avoid another Mosul, he added, will require more of something already in short supply: US troops.

''It drives up troops requirements," Krepinevich said. ''It's extremely difficult to get a handle on it. This is a major problem."

Bryan Bender can be reached at bender@globe.com.