Chávez faces opposition to proposed constitutional changes
CARACAS - Less than three weeks from a vote on his proposal to overhaul the Venezuelan Constitution and strengthen his grip on power, President Hugo Chávez is facing an uncharacteristic reversal in public opinion.
A growing number of students and voters, even a former Chávez confidant, say they oppose the constitutional overhaul because they believe it is antidemocratic. Despite that, Chávez's bid to bolster his 21st-century socialism is widely expected to pass.
Surveys by two independent pollsters indicate that only a third of Venezuelans support the changes, which critics say are a ploy to increase socialization and militarization of the country and further concentrate power in Chávez's hands.
The pollsters, Alfredo Keller of Keller & Associates and Luis Vicente Leon of Datanalisis, each say that at this point, the proposal still is likely to pass on Dec. 2 because low turnout among the fragmented opposition is likely to favor Chávez, a fierce critic of the United States.
Although falling steadily the past two years, Chávez's approval rating among voters remains solid at about 57 percent, Keller said.
Large numbers of Chávez opponents have abstained in recent balloting, including Chávez's landslide reelection last year. Many are convinced that the polling is rigged in Chávez's favor, although international monitors have never found meaningful instances of corruption at the polls.
As the vote draws closer, the situation in Venezuela has become more uncertain. Ever since the final draft of the proposal was unveiled Nov. 2, student groups from universities across Venezuela have taken to the streets to demonstrate against the package or to demand that the vote be postponed.
Student leaders and other critics have slammed the lack of transparency in the process by which Chávez and the national assembly drafted changes to 69 articles in the constitution.
"The changes he is proposing are more appropriate to a constitutional assembly, not a simple yes or no," said Dariela Sosa, a journalism student at Andres Bello Catholic University in Caracas. "We want time to evaluate the proposal on its own merits, not according to who is proposing it."
The protests have intensified as Chávez has tried to portray students as the spoiled offspring of the rich and as tools of his enemies. Chávez last week described his foes as "mafia, gangsters like Vito Corleone."
Demonstrations at times have turned violent. One female student protester was shot to death in Zulia state early this month and eight were wounded in Caracas last week. At his news conference, Chávez again said that students were being manipulated by his enemies and that the demonstrations were a provocation to "justify a coup d'etat."
The sharpest blow to Chávez came when his former defense minister and confidant, retired General Raul Baduel, called a news conference to describe the proposal as "fraudulent" and akin to a coup. He said voters should turn out to defeat the proposal.
Baduel, who helped restore Chávez to power after an abortive April 2002 coup, was immediately denounced as a traitor by Chávez loyalists. When national assemblyman Luis Tascon said that Baduel shouldn't be branded a traitor for expressing his opinion, Tascon was summarily expelled from Chávez's party, the congressman later said.
Even analysts who in the past have trod a middle ground in Venezuela's highly polarized political landscape and who have praised aspects of Chávez's social agenda expressed alarm last week about the "recentralization" of political power.
Most worrisome for many is the new political hierarchy it would create: a series of newly designated political regions and municipalities whose leaders would be appointed by Chávez and whose powers could supersede those of elected governors and mayors.
"These reforms are profoundly contradictory of the principles of participatory democracy embedded in the last constitution of 1999," said a Margarita Lopez Maya, a history professor at University of Central Venezuela. "It's a constitution not of everyone but of Chávez."
In a key change that worries many observers, the overhaul would redefine the role of the military from protecting national sovereignty to also insuring domestic peace. Moreover, the military would take on a greater role in social and economic policies.
Daniel Hellinger, a professor of political science at Webster University in St. Louis, said the proposals have "divided the Chávista movement internally."
"Some of the reforms are innovative mechanisms designed to decentralize and democratize how oil profits are distributed and used, but others concentrate additional powers in an already powerful presidency," Hellinger said.
Even Chávez's former wife, Marisabel Rodriguez, has said that he is wrong to change the 1999 constitution. "This would concentrate absolute power," she said. "They are throwing away a constitution that was the product of a legitimate and valid debate in which the people were heard."
Chávez supporters say a new constitution is the will of the majority of voters who have supported Chávez in five nationwide votes since he took power in 1999. 