BEIJING - The image of a catastrophic natural disaster that humbled a powerful leader may have stalked Premier Wen Jiabao of China as he made rapid-fire visits last week to areas devastated by snowstorms, but it probably wasn't Hurricane Katrina. Try going back a few centuries.
In a country where history is never far from the surface, the events in 1351 and 1644 may weigh on the mind of leaders. In those years, natural disasters led to the downfall of Chinese dynasties at a time of inflation, social unrest, and corruption.
"Chinese leaders are very aware of the latent threat behind this disaster," said Ong Yew-kim, a professor with the Chinese University of Hong Kong. "And Premier Wen Jiabao, who puts a lot of emphasis on history and culture, certainly thinks about this when dealing with this crisis. As we know, there is a life cycle for every dynasty."
Few see a serious risk to the Communist Party's grip in the storms that have killed at least 60 people, caused $7.5 billion in damage, and left millions of frustrated people struggling to return home for the Chinese New Year.
"I don't think people will question the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy because of this crisis," said Xiao Gongqin, a history professor at Shanghai Normal University.
But that hasn't eased the worries of the leadership, which is aware of the high political stakes and the potential for public frustration in the world's most populous country to turn quickly into massive riots.
"China is driven by a desire to maintain order amid fears things could devolve into chaos," said Scott Kronick, president of Ogilvy China, a public relations firm that has advised the government on crisis management using Hurricane Katrina as a case study.
Wen made several well-publicized trips to the hardest-hit areas, meeting stranded railway passengers, visiting relatives of workers killed in the storm and inspecting markets to reassure consumers that food shortages were temporary.
President Hu Jintao donned a red hard hat at a coal mine last week, urging miners to work harder at alleviating the storm-related coal shortages that left millions of people without power. The central government has mobilized more than a million soldiers and reservists to help clear roads and fix damaged rail lines, assist with relief work and ease cargo bottlenecks, amid reports that 223,000 houses have collapsed under snow and ice and 862,000 others have suffered damage. Wen said Friday the crisis could continue for several days.
Chinese history is rife with cases of rulers toppled by natural disasters, historians said.
In 1351, during the so-called Red Turban Rebellion, inflation-battered peasants rose up against the corrupt Yuan Dynasty leadership after a series of famines and floods, resulting in the start of the Ming Dynasty.
And in 1644, rebel leader Li Zicheng proclaimed himself emperor and captured Beijing after a devastating famine, remaining in power long enough to see Emperor Zhu Youjian commit suicide, leading to the establishment of the Qing Dynasty.
