Autonomy referendum threatens Bolivian stability, leftist agenda
SANTA CRUZ, Bolivia - Bolivia's wealthiest state of Santa Cruz is expected to vote for autonomy from the central government today in a referendum seen as a rejection of the leftist agenda of President Evo Morales.
A resounding "yes" for autonomy could prompt Morales to negotiate with conservative opposition leaders in Santa Cruz and throughout Bolivia's eastern lowlands or set the two sides on a collision course.
Passage of the referendum would theoretically give Santa Cruz control over local government, taxes, courts, police, and natural resources such as lush farmlands and large natural gas reserves.
The referendum is expected to get overwhelming approval because opponents of autonomy are planning to boycott the polls.
Many see the vote as a repudiation of Morales's policies, especially his drive to rewrite the constitution, which could lead to the breaking up of large ranches to distribute land to the poor.
"This vote is about Evo not controlling us," said Catarina Sukcer, a 36-year-old public transit worker as she swayed to chants of "freedom, freedom," at a pro-autonomy campaign rally last week in Santa Cruz city, the region's capital.
Conservative opposition to Morales's actions - including constitutional changes and recent blocks on some farming exports - is strong in Santa Cruz, home to a quarter of Bolivia's population and a third of its economy.
The large European-descended population in eastern Bolivia is concerned about Morales's pledges to make up for centuries of discrimination against Indians.
Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, has his power base in the heavily indigenous Andean mountains and he has accused the leaders of the autonomy movement of racism.
He has dismissed the referendum as illegal and likened it to an opinion poll. He warned provincial leaders not to use it to justify withholding revenue from the central government. Morales supporters are expected to hold unity rallies elsewhere in the country to protest the voting.
Tens of thousands of autonomy supporters rallied Wednesday night, waving the green and white Santa Cruz flag, holding children carrying white candles and swaying to the region's taquirari music, which has a Caribbean beat.
"This referendum is unstoppable," said a jubilant Branko Marinkovic, a successful business owner and one of the leaders of the Santa Cruz autonomy movement.
Some analysts say that if Morales does not negotiate after the vote, he could risk stoking more drastic rhetoric for independence from rebellious states. At least three other states are already planning their own autonomy votes.
Bolivia's East-West divide could be aggravated by the vote, or it could push Morales into working out a deal with the opposition, toning down his constitutional changes in exchange for partial autonomy.
"This will force the central government to sit down to negotiate with the regions to redefine their relationships," said Fabián Pressacco, a South America analyst at Chile's Alberto Hurtado university.
Morales's left-wing allies in Latin America, including President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, have decried the referendum as a rightist opposition attempt to destabilize the government.
Bolivia has a long history of instability, and Morales was elected after a five-year crisis when street protests toppled two leaders. His first major reform, a nationalization of the energy industry to bring more income to the state, has been popular.
