US considers picking up pace of Iraq pullout

Troops needed as Afghanistan fight intensifies

An Iraqi woman offered tea to a US soldier yesterday in Baghdad's Sadr City. There is broad consensus in Washington and Baghdad that more US forces can now leave Iraq. (Damir Sagolj/reuters)

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is considering the withdrawal of additional combat forces from Iraq beginning in September, according to administration and military officials, raising the prospect of a far more ambitious plan than expected only months ago.

Such a withdrawal would be a striking reversal from the nadir of the war in 2006 and 2007.

One factor in the consideration is the pressing need for additional American troops in Afghanistan, where the Taliban and other fighters have intensified their insurgency and inflicted a growing number of casualties on Afghans and US-led forces.

More American and allied troops died in Afghanistan than in Iraq in May and June, a grim trend that has continued this month.

Although no decision has been made, by the time President Bush leaves office Jan. 20, at least one and as many as three of the 15 combat brigades now in Iraq could be withdrawn or at least scheduled for withdrawal, the officials said.

The desire to move more quickly reflects the view of many in the Pentagon who want to ease the strain on the military but also free more troops for Afghanistan and potentially other missions.

The most optimistic course of events would still leave 120,000 to 130,000 US troops in Iraq, down from the peak of 170,000 late last year after Bush ordered what became known as the "surge" of additional forces.

Security in Iraq has improved vastly, as has the confidence of Iraq's government and military and police, raising the prospect of additional reductions that were barely conceivable a year ago. While officials caution that the relative calm is fragile, violence and attacks on US-led forces have dropped to the lowest levels since early 2004.

"As the Iraqi security forces get stronger and get better, then we will be able to continue drawing down our troops in the future," Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates said in Fort Lewis, Wash., on Tuesday. "And I think that this transition of control and of responsibility, primary responsibility for security, is a process that's already well under way and, based on everything that I'm hearing, will be able to continue."

General David H. Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, has begun the review of security and troop levels. He and Bush promised in April that such a review would take place.

Petraeus is expected to be more cautious than some policy makers in the administration and at the Pentagon might like. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were discussing military planning, said he was more likely to recommend a smaller reduction.

One senior administration official cautioned that Bush, who will have the final say, would be reluctant to endorse deep or rapid reductions if they jeopardized his goal of creating a stable and democratic government in Baghdad.

Still, there is broad consensus in Washington and Baghdad that more US forces can now leave Iraq and that more are needed in Afghanistan.

"There hasn't really been any discussion of numbers, and it's definitely based on conditions on the ground," a military officer in Baghdad said. And conditions, he went on, "are a lot more favorable than in December or April or even two months ago."

Petraeus, who will step down as commander in Iraq in September, will soon take over as commander of the US Central Command. In that position, he will oversee US forces and operations throughout the Middle East and Central and South Asia, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Pentagon has previously signaled that commanders wanted additional troops in Afghanistan - as many as 10,000 more than the roughly 32,000 there now - but with two wars seriously straining the Army and Marines in particular, officials have struggled to produce the extra forces.

A reduction of combat brigades in Iraq would free up additional troops that could instead be sent to Afghanistan, though officials said that no additional forces would go until next year, when fighting is expected to intensify with the arrival of spring.