Taiwan political crisis far from over
TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan's scandal-plagued President Chen Shui-bian has staved off an unprecedented parliamentary vote to unseat him, but his woes and the island's political crisis are far from over.
The island's main opposition Nationalist Party is pressing ahead with a drive in which it has so far collected 1.75 million signatures, urging Chen to resign over scandals involving his family and close aides.
Taiwan has a population of about 23 million.
The People First Party (PFP), Taiwan's second-biggest opposition party, is struggling for survival and has no qualms about initiating a vote of no-confidence against the cabinet.
A no-confidence vote would force Chen to either form a coalition government by naming an opposition politician as premier or dissolve parliament and call snap elections.
PFP chairman James Soong wants to draw "first blood" and is convinced snap elections will see the opposition win the two-thirds majority needed to "recall" Chen.
"The PFP has little to lose and James Soong needs a political stage," said Liu Bih-rong, a political science professor with the private Soochow University.
But Ma Ying-jeou, chairman of the Nationalist Party, is not going along, at least for now, after his approval ratings slipped due to public frustration over partisan bickering.
A no-confidence vote against the government complicates matters and risks splitting the Nationalists and the PFP over who becomes the new premier if Chen gives in.
The Nationalists may be the biggest winner in any snap election but half of incumbent deputies would be digging their own graves 18 months before their terms expire as the 225-member parliament will be halved in the next elections.
"The campaign may lose momentum when parliament resumes from recess in September," political analyst Andrew Yang said.
"Also, Ma will have a hard time convincing legislators to vote themselves out of office," Yang said, adding that snap polls were doubtful until after new election districts were finalized.
Chen survived at the expense of his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). A survey by the United Daily News showed that a record 68 percent of 836 respondents were unhappy with the DPP.
The DPP, founded 20 years ago, is almost certain to lose any snap parliamentary poll and faces an uphill battle in mayoral elections in the island's two biggest cities in December.
"Ah Bian lives, the DPP dies," political commentator Nan Fang-suo wrote, referring to Chen's nickname.
An embattled Chen is bracing for more possible bad news from prosecutors investigating his son-in-law who was detained in May on suspicion of insider trading.
Opposition lawmakers have accused Chen's wife of accepting millions of Taiwan dollars' worth of department store gift certificates. Both have denied any wrongdoing.
