US and China divided over approaches to North Korea

BEIJING -- While China and the United States are vowing to work together to rein in North Korea, the two countries are locked in a tense tug-of-war over how to deal with the reclusive regime in the long term, analysts say.

At the heart of the divide are contrasting objectives: the United States has made no secret that it would like to use international pressure to bring about the collapse of Kim Jong Il's regime; China, which fears the chaos that could result from Kim's fall, has said repeatedly it seeks a stable North Korea that is undertaking reforms.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives in Beijing today as part of an Asian trip to push for full implementation of strict United Nations sanctions against North Korea for its recent nuclear test.

Some specialists on China are calling for the Bush administration to negotiate directly with North Korea and provide security guarantees the nation seeks before it will return to six-party talks. The United States has refused, saying the one-on-one talks that President Clinton undertook had failed.

Song Dixing, associate professor at the Nanjing Institute of International Relations, said Washington's ``belligerent and capricious" policies have contributed to turning North Korea into an isolated, insecure, and impoverished state.

``The US authorities should reflect on their foreign policies," Song said. ``Its bilateral agreement with North Korea in 1994 posed a restraint on North Korea. However, when this agreement came to an end, so did the restraint. In my opinion, direct dialogue between the nations will likely bring about a new agreement which will be conducive to solving the crisis."

Following the passage of the UN sanctions last Saturday, Chinese customs officers have begun inspecting trucks crossing the Yalu River, which separates both countries.

Yesterday, a high-level Chinese envoy visited the North Korean capital and met with Kim, Chinese officials said.

But China, which supplies most of North Korea's oil, food, and consumer goods, is resisting a key part of the UN measure that requires countries to board ships arriving and leaving North Korea to check for suspicious material.

``China is balancing its strategic options," said Stephen Noerper, senior professor at New York University's Center for Global Affairs, who is in South Korea consulting with the US ambassador . ``It is gambling on just when to pull the rug. . . . It also sees caution on the sanctions as a way of sending positive signals to North and South Korea and others that China is not influenced by US hegemony."

China is concerned that if Kim's regime crumbles, the region could descend into chaos. Millions of refugees could cross the Yalu and enter northeast China, where there is a large Korean population that feels only marginally loyal to Beijing.

Such a threat has prompted China to begin building a massive concrete and barbed-wire fence along parts of its nearly 900-mile border with North Korea.

Noerper said China worries the disintegration of North Korea's Communist Party could hasten Korean reunification. Beijing has little desire to see an economically, militarily, and culturally resurgent Korean state on its borders.

Chinese officials also worry that a nuclear-armed North Korea could encourage Japan to reconstitute its armed forces and perhaps even go nuclear. Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who was visiting Beijing when North Korea conducted its nuclear test on Oct. 9, has ruled out this possibility.

Still, Noerper said, the North Korean crisis ``has the potential to unravel Japan's post-war constitution and lead to militarization. China would respond in kind, a dangerous scenario for regional peace and stability."

Shi Yinghong, director of the American Studies Center at the People's University in Beijing, said Kim's totalitarian government ``faces great risks of malfunctioning, even collapse." If that occurs, Shi said, intervention might be required to stabilize the country.

The possibility of turmoil is pushing Chinese leaders to use a mixture of carrots and sticks to get North Korea to return to the six-party talks it abandoned 13 months ago. In recent days, China's state-controlled media have reported that China might curtail its exports of oil and essential commodities to North Korea, something that Beijing had refused to countenance, unless Pyongyang returns to the negotiating table.

Alan Wachman, associate professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, said the Bush administration sees direct talks with North Korea as a concession, and ``that's backed the US into a corner."

``The current stance is not a reflection of strength, but weakness," he said. ``The reality is that the US does not have any leverage over North Korea."

Wachman said that while a nuclear North Korea is not good news, it's not disastrous.

``While we can't undevelop what North Korea already has, in reality states can always be locked into some form of deterrence," he said. ``What we should now focus on is the controls around their weapons and ensuring they do not sell them to non-state actors."