Analysis: Devastating cyclone raises risks for Myanmar junta
BANGKOK, Thailand -- The deadly cyclone that ripped into Myanmar poses a threat to the stranglehold on power of the country's ruling generals, becoming a force for change more powerful than huge pro-democracy demonstrations and international sanctions.
Few people think revolution is in the air, not while battered survivors are still burying the thousands of dead.
By an accident of timing, the cyclone hit just a week before Saturday's referendum on a new constitution. The junta hopes its proposed charter passes smoothly despite opposition from feisty democracy activists, but now it may face angry citizens in no mood to approve anything the government likes, even though the vote has been postponed in some areas hit by the storm.
No matter what happens in the referendum, the higher the storm's death toll climbs -- and the less effective the government's relief effort proves -- the bigger the potential for undermining the military's mandate to rule.
People in the region are notably superstitious, and the bad aura surrounding a tragedy often attaches itself to their governments. Rulers are considered responsible for natural conditions and a disaster can be viewed as a sign that officials have lost the "mandate of heaven."
Myanmar's generals have long ruled by fear, especially since thousands died when the army crushed democracy demonstrations in 1988. The lesson was reinforced last fall when new democracy protests led by Buddhist monks were suppressed, with at least 31 people killed and thousands arrested.
In contrast to the regime's decisive response to any hint of political opposition, it has been laggard in getting help to the cyclone victims.
While the military and other government authorities kept a low profile Monday in the storm-battered streets of the capital, civilians and Buddhist monks banded together, wielding axes and knives to clear roads of tree trunks and branches torn down by the cyclone's 120 mph winds.
"Where are all those uniformed people who are always ready to beat civilians?" one man complained to an Associated Press reporter, refusing to be identified for fear of retribution. "They should come out in full force and help clean up the areas and restore electricity."
The need for a major relief effort poses a dilemma for the junta: how much assistance to accept from abroad.
Allowing a major influx of foreigners carries risks, injecting unwanted outside influence and giving the aid givers rather than the junta credit for a recovery. But keeping out international aid would focus blame squarely on the military should it fail to restore peoples' livelihoods.
The most extreme change potentially could come within the military itself, providing an opening for more moderate officers to expand their influence if relief failures discredit the hard-line leaders at the top.
Dr. Alpaslan Ozerdem, of the Post-war Reconstruction and Development Unit of England's University of York, noted the sudden devastation of a natural disaster can unleash "a huge anger from the public for the inadequacies of the state."
Cases in recent history where disasters helped blaze a trail for reform include a 1985 earthquake in Mexico that many believe marked the beginning of the end for the long-ruling PRI party; Nicaragua's 1972 earthquake, which led to the decline of the Somoza dictatorship; and a 1970 cyclone where Pakistan's inadequate relief efforts contributed to the breakaway of the country's east to form Bangladesh.
"The image of the state as a paternal figure -- a heavy handed protector -- collapses spectacularly," Ozerdem said.
