For US, doubts rise, allies fall in Pakistan

Pervez Musharraf was surrounded by military officers as he left the Presidential House yesterday, ending a tenure that had the backing of US officials until recently. (Emilio Morenatti/Associated Press)

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - The resignation of President Pervez Musharraf yesterday comes after months of belated recognition by US officials that he was a waning asset. But it leaves them with a newly elected government that is unwilling or unable to confront an insurgency determined to bring down the government.

The decision removes from Pakistan's political stage the leader who for nearly nine years served as one of the United States' most important - and ultimately unreliable - allies.

"We've said for years that Musharraf is our best bet, and my fear is that we are about to discover how true that was," one senior administration official said, acknowledging that the United States had stuck with Musharraf for too long and developed few other relationships upon which to fall back.

The question of who will succeed Musharraf is certain to unleash wrangling between the two rival political parties who form the governing coalition and to add more turbulence to an already unstable nuclear-armed nation of 165 million people.

Bush administration officials will now have to find allies within the fractious civilian government at a time when suspicions between the US and Pakistani intelligence agencies and their militaries are deepening. Relations between the two countries are at their lowest ebb since Musharraf pledged to ally Pakistan with the United States after the 9/11 attacks.

Among the greatest concerns, senior US officials say, is the durability of new controls over Pakistan's nuclear program. Though Pakistan has been through far more abrupt political transitions than this one - through assassinations, a mysterious plane crash, and coups - this is the first since it amassed a large nuclear arsenal.

Another central concern is the war in Afghanistan, which has been fueled by Taliban and Al Qaeda militants who have used Pakistan as a rear base to launch increasingly lethal and sophisticated attacks across the border.

After years in which Musharraf proved to be incapable of reining in militants, US officials say they are now more skeptical than ever that they can count on cooperation from Pakistan's military leaders, including even General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, a former head of Pakistan's spy agency who replaced Musharraf as military chief in November.

In a harsh assessment, a US officer who dealt with the Pakistani army here for several years said in an interview in July that it was a "worthless institution" with "a few" outstanding individuals.

The increasing US mistrust of the Pakistani military, which has depended heavily on US financial support, has been heightened by Kayani's reluctance to move more of the army's focus from the border with India to the tribal areas.

A main challenge for Washington now will be to fix the attention of the two leaders of the coalition parties, Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, on the raging Taliban insurgency that not only threatens American soldiers in Afghanistan but could destabilize Pakistan itself.

The coalition government had "no comprehension" of the insurgency, said a former interior minister, Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, whose parliamentary constituency adjoins the tribal areas.

"They have one policy for domestic consumption: 'Have peace, don't use the army,' " he said. "Then for the foreigners they say: 'We will fight.' "