Unclear N. Korea succession could hamper nuclear talks

Chung Sung-Jun/Getty ImagesUS Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived at Seoul's military airport during her first diplomatic tour to Asia. (Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)

SEOUL - A potential succession crisis in North Korea appears be hampering efforts to restart talks on its nuclear program, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said yesterday, adding she will seek guidance from South Korea and China about how to proceed if North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is incapacitated.

"Everybody is trying to read the tea leaves as to what is happening and what is likely to occur, and there is a lot of guessing going on," Clinton told reporters as she flew to the South Korean capital after a one-day stop in Indonesia.

In August, when Kim failed to appear at North Korea's 60th anniversary parade, US intelligence officials said they believed Kim had a stroke - an assertion that North Korean media denied. Kim did not reappear in public view until recently, and US officials continue to believe he suffered some medical malady.

There have been many signs of political uncertainty in North Korea, including a report by North Korea's official news service that Kim fired his defense minister. In recent weeks, North Korea has declared void a series of agreements with South Korea, while its state media has unleashed angry blasts at the South Korean government, saying the two countries are close to war. There are also increasing signs that North Korea is preparing to test a long-range missile, which Japan and South Korea would consider highly provocative.

"There is an increasing amount of pressure because if there is succession, even if it is a peaceful succession, that creates even more uncertainty and it also may encourage behaviors that are even more provocative as a way to consolidate power within the society," Clinton said.

Kim took control in 1994, after the death of his father, Kim Il Sung, the founder of the state. Kim Jong Il, who presided over a famine in the mid-1990s that left 2 million dead, has four children, but only the youngest son, 25-year-old Kim Jong Woon, appears to be a possible candidate to succeed him. Last month, a South Korea report said that Kim Jong Woon had been designated as successor, but that has not been confirmed.

Kim's eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, 37, appears to have lost favor after he was caught in 2001 trying to enter Japan on a fake passport, saying he wanted to visit Tokyo Disneyland.

Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law, Chang Sung Taek, briefly gained stature before being purged in 2004, but in 2006 he was rehabilitated and later named to a senior post overseeing internal security. Under one scenario, Chang could run the country while Kim Jong Woon is groomed.

Clinton said she would press forward to restart the stalled six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear programs. "Our goal is to try to come up with a strategy that is effective at influencing the behavior of the North Koreans at a time when the whole leadership situation is unclear," she said.

Clinton also said she would seek to add North Korea's ballistic missile programs as a topic to be discussed at the six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear programs, within the current negotiations or as an adjunct. She said Pyongyang's missile program "was of great concern," but noted North Korea in the past has resisted efforts to include missiles in the nuclear talks.

On Monday, Kim Jong Il's 67th birthday, Pyongyang said it has the right to "space development" - a euphemism to disguise a missile test as a satellite launch. A day later, while visiting Tokyo, Clinton warned "the possible missile launch that North Korea is talking about would be very unhelpful" to efforts to improve relations.