Discontent flares on Iranian campuses

And they shouted down the ex-minister, Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi, once again yesterday.

Largely absent from international media reports and discounted by Western policymakers more focused on Iran’s nuclear program, the protest movement that erupted following Ahmadinejad’s disputed June 12 reelection has continued to smolder, mostly on college campuses.

Tomorrow, defying warnings by security officials, protesters plan to stage their first large public gatherings in six weeks. This time they plan to turn an annual nationwide march commemorating the 1979 takeover of the US Embassy, held on the 13th day of the Persian calendar month of Aban, into an antigovernment rally.

“The 13th of Aban is another appointment for us,’’ opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi said in a statement published by reformist websites. “It is here to remind us, once again, that the people are the leaders.’’

Iranian police warned the opposition not to hold protests this week. Hard-liners already have called on security forces to take tough action against any opposition rally.

In the West, some analysts have begun to discount the opposition movement’s ability to affect Tehran’s decision-making calculus. Some say months of repression have gutted the protest movement of its organizational capacity and leadership.

“Our view is that the regime has largely neutralized the opposition,’’ said Mark Fowler, a former CIA analyst who now heads Persia House, a service run by the Booz Allen Hamilton consulting company in Washington. “It seems to us that they have pretty much decapitated the opposition in terms of leadership. I don’t think the government is particularly worried about it.’’