Talks on Northern Ireland to resume
DUBLIN -- Negotiations on reviving power-sharing in Northern Ireland, the goal of the 1998 peace accord, are to resume today on the 10th anniversary of an Irish Republican Army cease-fire.
The key, all sides agree, will be whether the outlawed IRA makes sufficient peace commitments that persuade the Democratic Unionists, the dominant Protestant party, to cooperate with the IRA's Sinn Fein party.
Such a marriage of extremes -- long unthinkable in a British territory where Democratic Unionists still refuse to negotiate face to face with Sinn Fein leaders, much less shake their hands -- is now openly discussed as possible.
The Belfast negotiations this week are expected to pave the way for a high-pressure summit Sept. 16-18 at Leeds Castle, east of London. The prime ministers of Britain and Ireland, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern, who have devoted months to finding a resolution in Northern Ireland, warn they have grown exasperated and may try a different approach unless Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionists reach an accord this month.
As in past junctures of peacemaking, surprise new IRA peace moves, particularly a resumption of its disarmament, could sway Protestant leaders toward the next stage of compromise.
Significant is that Ian Paisley, 78, the Democratic Unionist leader and for more than three decades a tireless campaigner against compromise, is in fading health and taking a back seat. His heir apparent, deputy leader Peter Robinson, dispenses similarly die-hard views but tempers them with an unabashed appetite for forming a local government with Catholics.
A four-party administration led by Protestant and Catholic moderates took office in late 1999, briefly fulfilling the vision of the US-brokered Good Friday agreement.
But the 12-member Cabinet, which included two officials each from Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionists, broke down repeatedly because of showdowns between Protestant moderates and Sinn Fein. It collapsed in October 2002 after police unearthed evidence of Sinn Fein involvement in IRA intelligence-gathering.
In a legislative election in November, an increasingly polarized electorate overturned the traditional balance of power in Northern Ireland, demoting moderates and crowning the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein as the top two parties for the first time.
Analysts agree that the hard-liners' rise reflects voters' desire to be represented as forcefully as possible in the new negotiations. It also means Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionists now wield the power to form, or block, any new administration and would be entitled to the majority of the Cabinet posts.
Analysts say a Sinn Fein-Democratic Unionist coalition, while a mammoth task to achieve, could stand a better chance of survival.
"If those two parties can do a deal over the next few days, it's hard to see why that wouldn't stick around for the 10 to 15 years," said Nicholas Whyte, a specialist on Northern Ireland politics and modern European conflicts.
The 10th anniversary of the IRA cease-fire has concentrated minds on just how far the peace process has come.
The conflict over Northern Ireland claimed more than 3,000 lives from 1969 to 1994. Some 185 people have died in politically motivated violence since then, chiefly committed by anti-Catholic extremists and IRA dissidents.
