Anxiety increases over Iranian nuclear program

VIENNA -- A year ago, nonproliferation officials were jubilantly hailing the triumph of diplomacy in reining in Iran's alleged nuclear weapons ambitions. But many now fear that efforts to negotiate with Tehran have descended into a perilous diplomatic quagmire.

Five days of tense talks at the International Atomic Energy Agency wrapped up Monday with the Europeans becoming increasingly exacerbated, the United States angrily threatening to unilaterally seek UN Security Council sanctions, and many wondering whether Iran is negotiating in good faith.

The Vienna-based IAEA, the UN nuclear watchdog, did manage to pass a resolution endorsing Iran's suspension of sensitive nuclear activities, part of a deal with the European Union. But diplomats who once described the accord as a confidence-building measure to assure the world that Tehran was not developing nuclear weapons are now warily talking of a mounting ''confidence deficit."

Iran cut a similar deal with the Europeans in October 2003, only to back out of it by July. Moreover, because of Iran's constant threats to cease all cooperation, the new accord is riddled with loopholes and falls far short of the ironclad and legally binding guarantees the Europeans had originally hoped for, diplomats said.

If Iran is determined to pursue nuclear weapons, whatever the diplomatic and political cost, there is very little the United States can do short of a military strike, which would probably further destabilize neighboring Iraq and the Middle East, American analysts say.

''They've got us in a corner, and we've got them in a corner," said Stephen P. Cohen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution specializing in foreign policy and proliferation issues. ''I don't see an end to it," Cohen said.

Iran and the European Union are scheduled to begin negotiations in two weeks on economic and political concessions. A day after the agreement, Tehran was already issuing not-so-veiled threats that Iran may back out of the agreement yet again if it is not satisfied.

''There is a general unease," a Western diplomat in Vienna said, describing the mood of the officials involved in talks. ''People want to believe, but aren't sure they can," the diplomat added. ''This whole process is fraught with peril, but we need to see it through."

At the heart of the unease are unanswered fundamental questions about Iran's intentions.

Some think that Iran's officials, whom diplomats consider to be master negotiators, are just setting the stage to squeeze as many economic and political concessions out of the Europeans as possible.

Others fear that Tehran is dragging out negotiations as long as possible in order to win time to build a bomb.

''Iran may be willing to see if it can be offered enough carrots to give up," the Western diplomat in Vienna said. ''Or they could be just playing for time."

Despite the recent agreement with Iran, international inspectors continue to seek access to suspicious sites in Iran. The New York Times, citing diplomats in Vienna, reported today that inspectors want to check two secret military sites where intelligence -- a mix of satellite photographs and procurement records -- suggests that Iran's Ministry of Defense may be working on atomic weapons.

Although rich in oil, Iran insists its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and solely for generating electricity.

Regardless of Iran's intentions, it has shown a proven ability to enrich uranium and has begun developing an emerging infrastructure that could produce weapons-grade material. Without restrictions, Tehran could be just a few years away from a weapon, analysts say.

''This is a highly risky business, and there is no guarantee it will work," a senior official close to the IAEA said, referring to international efforts to entice Iran away from a weapons program.

Hassan Rohani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, added to the skepticism on Tuesday when he insisted that Tehran's agreement with the EU to suspend activities related to uranium enrichment would be temporary. Enrichment is a process that generates fuel for use in nuclear power plants or, potentially, in weapons.

''We're talking about months, not years," Rohani told a press conference in Tehran. ''Negotiations with Europe will be complicated. It won't be easy and will have lots of ups and downs," he added. ''If the Europeans do not show honesty, we will leave the talks."

Europe is offering Iran concessions ranging from trade deals to the transfer of technology for nuclear power in exchange for making the uranium enrichment freeze permanent. Iran's nuclear program has been under international scrutiny since February 2003, when the IAEA began investigating allegations of a weapons program.

With evidence mounting of a possible undeclared weapons program, Tehran admitted in October 2003 to conducting 18 years of covert atomic experiments, including the unreported uranium enrichment in a breach of the Nonproliferation Treaty. Enrichment is only allowed if it is reported to the IAEA and open to inspections to assure it is for peaceful purposes.

In an effort to head off the Security Council sanctions the United States was already demanding, Tehran had signed an agreement days earlier with Germany, France, and Britain -- who were negotiating on behalf of the EU -- to suspend enrichment and agree to new, stringent IAEA inspections.

At the time, diplomats hailed the deal as a triumph of diplomacy, suggesting that the United States and Europe had played a perfect game of ''good cop, bad cop" to put Iran's nuclear program in a box. But the euphoria faded in July when Iran resumed production of components for centrifuges, devices that spin at supersonic speeds to enrich, or purify, uranium.

With pressure mounting again for a Security Council referral, Germany, France, and Britain cut another deal with Iran, signed Nov. 14.

Europe and the United States hoped to use the latest round of talks at the IAEA to turn the EU-Iran agreement into a legally binding commitment endorsed and monitored by the UN nuclear watchdog.

But Tehran infuriated Washington and Brussels by demanding an exemption for 20 centrifuges for research purposes. Iran backed down, but demanded -- and won -- key changes in the wording of the IAEA resolution.

Crucially, the resolution describes the enrichment freeze as voluntary, rather than legally binding as the United States and EU had sought. It was the softest of the six resolutions the IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors has passed in the past 15 months concerning Iran.

In her closing statement, Jackie Sanders, the chief US envoy to the talks, said Washington might seek Security Council sanctions on its own, regardless of what the IAEA board decides.

''The United States reserves all of its options with respect to Security Council consideration of the Iranian nuclear weapons program," Sanders told delegates. ''Iran has repeatedly demonstrated bad faith, and the United States has long lost any illusions that Iran's ultimate intentions are peaceful."