Bush, EU allies take new angle on Iran nuclear ambitions

VIENNA -- The Bush administration's recent push to forge a unified strategy with its European allies to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons has brought fresh hope for a potential breakthrough in a two-year diplomatic quagmire, diplomats and analysts said.

During a visit last week to CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., President Bush gave a strong signal that he is seeking ways to back a European Union initiative to offer Iran economic concessions in exchange for Tehran forswearing nuclear weapons.

''I have told our European friends who are handling the negotiations on behalf of the rest of the world that we want to help make sure the process goes forward, and we're looking at ways to help move the process forward," Bush said, adding that Iran was ''the guilty party" for ''not living up to international accords."

The EU has been offering Iran economic concessions, including support for Tehran's bid to join the World Trade Organization, allowing it to buy parts for civilian aircraft, and possible assistance with peaceful nuclear technology.

The negotiations, which began in December, are scheduled to resume this week in Geneva.

It is unclear how far the Bush administration will go to coax the EU diplomacy. According to news reports citing unidentified US officials, Washington may agree not to block key elements of a potential deal, such as EU support for a possible Iranian WTO bid.

Any public backing from Washington for the negotiations would mark a significant shift in US policy; and a newly united US- European front could potentially break the longstanding diplomatic logjam over Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions, diplomats and analysts said.

''They must force Tehran to confront a painful choice: either nuclear weapons or economic health," Kenneth M. Pollack, director of research for the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a recent article.

''In the past, dissension among the United States and its allies allowed Tehran to circumvent this difficult choice."

Although rich in oil, Iran insists that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and is aimed at generating electricity.

Ever since the extent of Iran's clandestine nuclear program became public in 2003, the United States and the EU have used diverging tactics to try to prevent Iran from acquiring an atomic bomb.

The EU tried to entice Tehran by dangling economic and political carrots in exchange for Iran giving up uranium enrichment, a process that could produce fuel for nuclear weapons. Washington refused to participate in the European initiative, saying that it rewarded bad behavior, and instead demanded that Tehran be brought before the UN Security Council for possible sanctions.

As the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors met last week to discuss Iran's nuclear program, word of an impending shift in US policy circulated widely among diplomats -- and was greeted warmly by the allies.

''The Americans appear to be sensibly reconsidering," a European diplomat familiar with the talks said on condition of anonymity.

''They are realizing that just trying to confront Iran isn't working. It isn't containing Iran's nuclear program," the diplomat added, calling the new US approach ''quite useful."

But Washington also is pushing the allies to support US efforts to send Iran to the Security Council within a specific time frame if the EU-sponsored diplomacy fails, according to news reports that cited unidentified US officials.

The EU also seemed last week to be modifying its approach, taking a much sterner public line with Iran, a possible indication that the US and European policies may be converging.

Britain, Germany, and France -- the so-called EU Three nations negotiating on behalf of the alliance -- warned during the IAEA meetings that Tehran must stick to the letter of a pledge it made to suspend uranium enrichment.

Iran agreed to the temporary suspension in November as pressure mounted to refer Tehran to the Security Council for violating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

''We understand this decision as a voluntary commitment to suspend all -- meaning all, meaning each and every -- enrichment-related activities, without exceptions," Robert Wright, head of the British delegation to the IAEA, told the agency's board of governors on behalf of the EU Three.

A Western diplomat in Vienna, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the tone of the IAEA meeting last week ''should be a serious wake-up call for the Iranian regime."

But Iran threatened yesterday to resume production of nuclear fuel if Tehran is brought before the Security Council.

''If the Americans succeed in referring Iran's case to the Security Council, Iran will immediately suspend all its voluntary confidence-building measures," Reuters quoted Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rohani, as saying. He added that such a move would destabilize the Middle East and disrupt oil markets, according to news reports.

The apparent US-European unity on Iran emerged after Bush's high-profile trip to Europe last month. New disclosures also have been made about Iran, including that Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear arms program, had offered Tehran a so-called starter kit for uranium enrichment in 1987, at the height of the Iran-Iraq war.

In addition, Pierre Goldschmidt, deputy IAEA chief, told the agency's board of governors last week that inspectors visited a uranium conversion plant at Isfahan and uncovered evidence of ''extensive underground excavation activities" that had not been reported to the agency.

Iran also refused to share information with inspectors about a research center in Tehran called Lavizan, where the IAEA is investigating potential uranium enrichment activities.

Last year, satellite photos indicated that the Lavizan site had been razed.

Tehran also would not allow inspectors to revisit the Parchin military base, where the United States suspects Iran may have conducted tests related to making bombs.

Iran admitted in October 2003 to covering up 18 years of atomic research, including the unreported enriching of uranium in breach of the nonproliferation treaty. Enrichment is allowed under the treaty, but only if it is reported to the IAEA and open to inspections to assure it is for peaceful purposes.

The United States immediately pushed for Iran to be sent to the Security Council for potential sanctions.

But after entreaties by the foreign ministers of Germany, France, and Britain, Iran promised in October 2003 to suspend all activities related to uranium enrichment. Iran reneged on the pledge last September, announcing that it had begun converting large quantities of raw uranium into gas to prepare it for enrichment.

With pressure again mounting for Security Council sanctions, Iran agreed to renew the suspension in November and began talks with the EU in December on economic incentives.

But Iran continues to insist that it has a sovereign right to enrich uranium and will never give it up permanently.