Moscow wary following upheaval in Kyrgyzstan

MOSCOW -- One of the most popular films in the history of Russian cinema, ''White Sun of the Desert," tells the story of a Russian soldier drawn into adventure and drama amid the deserts of Central Asia, as he tries to make his way home from the civil war that followed the Bolshevik Revolution.

By movie's end the soldier appears convinced that Moscow-based masters could never fully control the lands of Central Asia, where sages and warriors rule, loyalties and hatreds run deep, and lives are shaped by codes of honor as ancient as the desert sand.

Thirty-five years after the film was made, and nearly 85 years since the events it draws on took place, Russia is still grappling with the same problem as it tries to reassert its influence over its former colonies in Central Asia. The difficulties have mounted following the uprising last week in Kyrgyzstan, which toppled the nation's government and unsettled a balance of Russia's economic, military, and political interests in the region.

The five former Soviet republics in Central Asia are still home to many ethnic Russians. Moscow tends to regard the region as its backyard, essential for Russia's well-being. The territory offers vast mineral resources, but also a mishmash of authoritarian regimes, ethnic conflicts, and Islamic extremism right under Russia's midsection. Now Moscow seems worried that the leaders of the Kyrgyz uprising may have let loose more dangerous forces than they can control.

The uprising started as an opposition protest against voting irregularities, but its triumph disintegrated into looting that left smashed windows and ransacked shops in Kyrgyz cities. Inspired by peaceful protests that toppled governments in two other former Soviet republics -- Ukraine's Orange Revolution last year and Georgia's Rose Revolution the year before -- the Kyrgyz opposition chose yellow tulips as a symbol of their resistance. But highlighting a lack of unity in the movement, protests in some Kyrgyz provinces gathered under banners of different colors -- some of which disturbed Moscow.

''I don't care what color their revolution is, . . . as long as it's not Islamic extremists gathering under their green flags," the head of the foreign affairs committee of the upper chamber of Russian parliament, Mikhail Margelov, said on Russian television the night after the Kyrgyz government fell last Tuesday.

Radical Islamists remain a heavy presence in the Fergana Valley, where Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan merge, and where extremists who sought to carve out an Islamic state fought government troops in the 1990s.

Security seems the main concern for Moscow, and perceived threats are many. Besides radical Islamic groups, Moscow worries about possible violence between competing factions in Kyrgyzstan, riots in any of the Central Asian states, or conflicts between the five nations.

''A lot will depend on how quickly they manage to restore order" in Kyrgyzstan, said Moscow-based independent political analyst Alexander Pikayev.

Kyrgyzstan's neighbors Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have sealed their borders amid the Kyrgyz revolt, but the region's record of ensuring security is notoriously poor. Any unrest could spill over the more than 4,500-mile-long, loosely guarded border between Russia and Kazakhstan.

''If the situation in the Central Asian region becomes destabilized, it will be a serious blow against Russia," said Dmitry Trenin, a foreign policy analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center. ''Today Russia doesn't have a whole lot of strength to influence the situation." Moscow, which is under domestic pressure to protect the many ethnic Russians in Central Asia -- some of them Russian citizens -- has not been greatly successful so far.

Ethnic Russians in dictatorial Turkmenistan have appealed to Moscow to protest a ban on Russian-language radio broadcasts and the closure of Russian schools by Turkmen leader Saparmurat Niyazov, who has had himself declared president for life. But Moscow seemed unwilling to antagonize his government.

''Natural gas. That's the reason," Trenin said. Turkmenistan sits on rich oil and gas reserves, and Russia wants a share in developing them.

Kyrgyz opposition leaders who came to power last week include former government ministers with longtime ties with Moscow. They have promised to strengthen relations between the two nations, as impoverished Kyrgyzstan hopes for Russian investments to support its economy.

Two opposition leaders visited Moscow earlier this year, and seem to have convinced the Kremlin that they have no plans to follow their Georgian and Ukrainian counterparts in turning away from Russia and toward the West.

''We have traditionally friendly relations with Russia," said Kurmanbek Bakiyev, named acting Kyrgyz president after the revolt. ''Nobody want to change those relations."

Russian authorities, who strongly sided with the Ukrainian government during the Orange Revolution, and lost, refrained from openly taking sides in Kyrgyzstan.

''The Ukrainian lesson has played a part, but also the fact that the Kyrgyz opposition has succeeded in building a relationship with Moscow even before their revolution started," Pikayev said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed ''regret that once again on the post-Soviet territory political questions are being solved by unlawful methods." He offered ousted Kyrgyz president Askar Akayev refuge, while also praising those who unseated him as people who ''did a lot for establishing the current level of relations between Russia and Kyrgyzstan."