German seen as a papal favorite

VATICAN CITY -- When he led the funeral Mass for Pope John Paul II, he spoke emotionally of his departed brother and quoted Jesus: ''Follow me." Every day since, he has been helping to direct the business of a fatherless church.

And yesterday, a newspaper published excerpts of his latest book, ''Values in Times of Upheaval," ruminations on the besieged soul of Christian Europe.

With such hints, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger became the focus of speculation yesterday that declared him a leading candidate to succeed John Paul and become history's 265th pope.

The formal balloting will not begin until Monday, when cardinals of the Roman Catholic Church gather in the Sistine Chapel to pray and select their new leader in an assembly known as a conclave. By all accounts, many of the 115 voting cardinals have not yet made up their minds.

But in the secretive world of papal politics, and with cardinals officially sworn to silence, Vatican-watchers must content themselves with telltale signs and semi-educated guesswork. And yesterday the buzz swirled around Ratzinger, the German-born conservative theologian who has served as chief enforcer of church doctrine for more than two decades.

Vatican observers at several of Italy's leading newspapers reported that Ratzinger was gaining support among his colleagues. Luigi Accattoli, writing in Corriere della Sera, Italy's largest daily, said Ratzinger had won the support of about 40 cardinals in pre-conclave jockeying -- still short of the two-thirds majority needed.

Ratzinger represents the camp of cardinals who advocate hewing closely to John Paul's most traditional policies.

An opposing bloc of cardinals is said to prefer change and ''collegiality," which refers to decentralization of Vatican power and the restoration of more independence to local dioceses.

Ratzinger, who turns 78 on Saturday, also may appeal to those seeking an older pope and a shorter ''transitional" papacy that would give the church time to calm the waters and absorb John Paul's legacy before charting a longer-term future.

The cardinals are meeting in daily closed-door sessions and exchanging ideas ''on the situation of the church and the world," said Joaquin Navarro-Valls, spokesman for the Vatican. Ratzinger, as dean of the College of Cardinals, usually directs the meetings.