Anticipation builds as cardinals gather

VATICAN CITY -- On the central balcony of St. Peter's Basilica, where the next pope will be introduced to the world, a red curtain now hangs open, as if waiting for a cardinal to arrive and pronounce the news in Latin: ''Habemus Papam."

Tourists and journalists yesterday trained their eyes and their cameras on the T-shaped chimney above the Sistine Chapel, where, sooner or later, white smoke will signal the election of a pope.

And the 115 cardinal-electors -- those under age 80 -- yesterday left apartments and hotels and seminaries around Rome and moved into the Domus Sanctae Marthae, the $20 million residence where they will stay while participating in the conclave that begins today.

The cardinals, who stopped granting on-the-record interviews more than a week ago, have offered few indications as to whom they will choose to replace John Paul II, who died April 2 after a 26-year papacy.

Representing 52 countries, the most diverse group in history, the cardinals say they believe the choice will be informed by the Holy Spirit. They plan to gather at 10 a.m. (4 a.m. EDT) in St. Peter's Basilica for a ''Mass for the election of the Supreme Pontiff."

Then, at 4:30 p.m. (10:30 a.m. EDT), the cardinals are scheduled to gather in the Vatican palace and process into the Sistine Chapel, where they are to swear an oath, pledging secrecy, and to hear a meditation delivered by a retired cardinal, Tomas Spidlik.

And then, the election begins. The cardinals will choose whether or not to cast a first ballot this afternoon; after today, they are scheduled to vote twice each morning and twice each afternoon until they elect a pope.

Many Vatican watchers believe there is no cardinal who currently enjoys the support of 77 cardinals, the two-thirds' majority traditionally required for the election of a pope. But attention in Vatican City is focused on one cardinal who is sure to influence the selection, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger of Germany, as well as about two dozen others who are considered ''papabile," or qualified to become the 265th leader of the Catholic Church, which has 1 billion members.

''This is a hard decision and a very heavy decision," said Sister Mary Ann Walsh, a spokeswoman for the US Conference of Catholic Bishops. ''They have to make the choice based on the needs of the church and the needs of the wider society."

Ratzinger and several Italian cardinals are among the potential kingmakers at the conclave, viewed by many analysts as able to influence the selection of the next pope, even if they themselves are not likely to be elected. Among them are Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini, the former archbishop of Milan, who is highly regarded by moderates but is considered unlikely to become pope because he is 78 and has Parkinson's disease, and Cardinal Camillo Ruini, the vicar general for Rome and the longtime president of the Italian bishops' conference.

Several Italian cardinals are also among the most discussed candidates for the papacy. Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan has emerged as a favorite of moderates, despite his ties to the conservative group Opus Dei, because of his interest in social justice, while Cardinal Angelo Scola of Venice, the son of a truck driver who became an accomplished theologian, is liked by conservatives.

But many Vatican watchers are focused on the possibility of a Latin American pope, because about half of the world's Catholics live in that region. Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Sao Paolo demonstrated his concern for labor by offering shelter to striking metalworkers; Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires is a Jesuit priest who prefers to travel by bus and refused to live in the local archbishop's mansion; and Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Tegucigalpa, Honduras, is an advocate for the poor who drew critical attention when he blasted US newspapers, including The Boston Globe, for their coverage of the clergy sexual-abuse crisis. He called the coverage ''a persecution of the church" and said it was characterized by ''a fury which reminds me of the times of Diocletian and Nero and, more recently, Stalin and Hitler."

Among the long-shot possibilities are Cardinal Ivan Dias of Bombay, a longtime Vatican diplomat; Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Quebec, a crusader against same-sex marriage in Canada; and Cardinal Ennio Antonelli, the archbishop of Florence, who said yesterday in a homily: ''The new pope has already been chosen by the Lord. We just have to pray to understand who he is."

Ratzinger, who was the prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith during the John Paul II papacy, is admired by many for his defense of orthodoxy, but is also controversial for approving the disciplining of numerous theologians.

Ratzinger recently approved a teaching ban against the Rev. Roger Haight, formerly of the Weston Jesuit School of Theology in Cambridge, because Ratzinger deemed a book Haight wrote as containing ''serious doctrinal errors" about the role of Jesus in the salvation for non-Christians.

Ratzinger has enjoyed a boomlet in support in part because many people thought he did a good job delivering the homily at John Paul's funeral, and in part because he was a close adviser to the pontiff.

''His performance at the funeral certainly solidified his reputation, and if he's not elected himself, I don't think anyone can be elected over his objections," said John-Peter Pham, a professor at James Madison University.

But Ratzinger turned 78 Saturday, which Vatican analysts say could be a concern because, even though Ratzinger appears healthy, the cardinals might want to avoid the prospect of another frail, ailing pope in the short-term.

''I think it's going to be a fairly challenging conclave -- there's never been a leading candidate, and the reason is that there are a whole number of opinions, and so much depends on what the cardinals find to be the major issue facing the church," said the Rev. Keith Pecklers, professor of theology at the Pontifical Gregorian University in Rome.

Yesterday, crowds of tourists milled about a rainy St. Peter's Square, visiting the basilica, taking pictures of the chimney, and talking expectantly about the week ahead.

''I would like them to choose someone who will continue where the old man has left off -- not to favor any continent, but to be a universal person," said Stan Alfwani, a 34-year-old seminarian from Nairobi. Alfwani said he hopes the next pope will pay particular attention to ''inculturation," making sure that the church is assimilated into different cultures, including those of Africa.

Yasuhiko Masuoka, 67, of Tokyo said he, too, is hoping for a pope who will carry on John Paul's policies. But Masuoka also said he would like the cardinals to make another bold geographic choice, as they did with John Paul, who, as a Pole, was the first non-Italian pope in 455 years.

''This time they should choose a pope from Latin America, because it will show a more cosmopolitan image to the world," Masuoka said.

Even non-Catholic visitors said they are paying close attention to the goings-on.

''John Paul II was very good for all religions, and we hope that whoever will replace him will do the same," said Mohammed Salem, 49, of Mauritania, a Muslim tourist who praised John Paul's outreach to Islam.

Michael Paulson can be reached at mpaulson@globe.com.