Germany could hold elections 1 year early

BERLIN -- A grim Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder yesterday pleaded with Parliament to dissolve his government, arguing that his ruling coalition had lost the ability to fix the German economy, the largest in Europe and hobbled by years of stagnation and joblessness.

After a two-hour debate, lawmakers approved Schroeder's request to disband and hold national elections in September. If the president and courts sign off on the idea, the elections would take place a year earlier than they normally would.

The call for early elections represents a gamble by Schroeder to revive his mandate to restructure the economy, a goal that helped sweep him to power. But with growth still stalled and unemployment in double digits, opinion polls suggest that Schroeder and his coalition will lose.

The next chancellor could be Angela Merkel, leader of the opposition Christian Democrats. She would be the first woman to hold the office and the first person from the former communist East to lead the reunified Germany.

The sense of defeatism that lingered in the Reichstag building in the capital reflected the political mood across Germany, where a majority of voters say they lack confidence in any of their leaders to address a host of pressing social and economic issues. These include the highest unemployment rate since World War II and a failure to erase cultural and income gaps between the formerly communist East Germany and the wealthier West.

Schroeder won reelection three years ago, in large part by vociferously opposing US policy toward Iraq. Along with President Jacques Chirac of France, he has often opposed US policy objectives. Both leaders have seen their popularity plummet at home because of economic concerns and antiglobalization sentiment, as well as anxiety over immigration and their countries' roles in the expanded European Union.

In an address to lawmakers, Schroeder said his ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens was hopelessly divided over his policies to rejuvenate the economy with a mixture of spending cuts and hiring incentives. Some Social Democrats, saying that they are alarmed by an erosion in welfare programs and job protection measures, have said they will bolt the party.

''I can no longer be certain of the Parliament's confidence," Schroeder said. ''Without a new mandate, my political program cannot be carried forward."

The maneuver of seeking a vote of no confidence in his own rule grew from provisions in the German constitution that make it difficult to dissolve a government.

They were drafted after World War II in an effort to avoid the political instability that helped the Nazis rise to power.

Two further hurdles must be surmounted before an early election can happen. The no-confidence vote by Parliament must be upheld by President Horst Koehler, who has indicated that he will not rubber-stamp the move. The president has three weeks to make his decision.

He has said that he will take into account arguments from some legal scholars and members of Schroeder's coalition that it is unconstitutional for a ruling party to disband a government unless there is a genuine political crisis that prevents it from operating.

Opponents of yesterday's vote have already served notice that they will file a challenge with the German Supreme Court.

Otto Depenheuer, a law professor at the University of Cologne, said Schroeder carefully crafted his call for a no-confidence vote by stressing that rebels in the governing coalition were making it impossible for him to continue effectively, rather than blaming the opposition.

''He clearly stated that he was lacking support from his own party," Depenheuer said. ''This is a clear sign for the federal president that the chancellor is no longer in a position to carry out his politics. The Social Democrats are no longer capable of governing, and Schroeder has accepted the consequences."

Lawmakers in the lower house of Parliament voted 296-to-151 against the government; there were 148 abstentions. Virtually all the abstentions came from Schroeder's coalition.

Opinion polls show that the opposition Christian Democrats are far ahead of Schroeder's party in the polls. In May, the Christian Democrats won a regional election in the populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, an industrial region that had strongly favored the Social Democrats for 40 years.

Merkel, the Christian Democratic leader, told Parliament that early elections were necessary. ''The people are fed up with being governed by a zigzag course," she said.

In remarks aimed at Schroeder, she reminded the chancellor of a campaign promise he made in 1998 to add jobs to an economy that was already starting to falter.

''You said it yourself, 'If we do not lower unemployment significantly, we do not deserve to be reelected,' " Merkel said. ''Mr. Chancellor, you cannot argue that the figure of almost 5 million unemployed people is not almost exactly the opposite of what you anticipated."