Long, tough talks seen over Turkey

BERLIN -- The European Union's historic decision to open talks aimed at admitting Turkey is certain to trigger a rancorous debate over the future of the 25-nation bloc, whose collective boundaries defined Christendom for more than 1,000 years.

Often seen as an emergent superpower -- a potential economic and strategic counterweight to the United States -- the EU is still reeling from a major setback earlier this year when voters in two founding nations, France and the Netherlands, voted against a proposed constitution for the continent. Europe's identity crisis is almost certain to be exacerbated by the bitter argument over whether to push the organization's boundaries east to embrace a poor, predominantly Muslim nation that lies mainly in Asia.

''It's going to be a rough ride," said Richard G. Whitman, senior analyst on Europe for Chatham House, a London-based think tank that focuses on international issues. ''Turkey is much poorer than any other nation that has been admitted to the EU. And much will be made of the cultural differences."

Britain has fewer qualms about admitting Turkey than most countries. ''Turkey's history has been intertwined with Europe's in a way that makes it unique," said Whitman, speaking from London. ''Also, Turkey offers Europe a large market, has a fast-growing economy, industries that make things Europeans don't make anymore, and a youthful workforce -- all critical for Europe."

But even Prime Minister Tony Blair stressed yesterday that the admission of Turkey, if it comes, will mark ''a very big change" for Europe and that the debate over granting full membership ''will be an issue of controversy for years to come."

President Jacques Chirac of France said Turkey must undergo a ''major cultural revolution" on improving its civil rights record, adhering to the rule of law, and expanding democratic liberties before it will be allowed to join Europe in a torturous admission process that many analysts expect to take at least a decade.

''Will it succeed? I cannot say. I hope so," Chirac said at a news conference in Paris. ''But I am not at all sure."

France has pledged to hold a national referendum on whether to admit Turkey similar to the referendum in May that sent shock waves from Portugal to Poland when voters rejected a proposed European constitution.

The stiffest opposition to Turkey's membership is expected to come from Germany, which has a Turkish immigrant population of more than 2 million, and from Austria, which has historically cast itself as the gatekeeper of Europe.

Indeed, history is sure to play a big role in the modern debate. Austria turned back the conquesting armies of the Ottoman Turks in the 1683 Battle of Vienna. Had the clash gone differently, Austrian schoolbooks still emphasize, much of Europe would have fallen to the Turks, and the continent would have evolved ''under the crescent instead of the cross," in the words of an often quoted Viennese saying.

A recent poll indicated that only 10 percent of Austrians support admitting Turkey into the EU. Support runs somewhat higher in other countries, but throughout the continent a majority of citizens oppose full Turkish membership for reasons that range from the outright racist to the purely economic. Given that the EU has traditionally sought consensus, refusing to take major steps until all member nations are in accord, the debate over Turkey could make for a nasty wrangle stretching over decades.

''Turkey must win the hearts and minds of European citizens," European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso told reporters in Brussels. ''They are the ones who at the end of the day will decide about Turkey's membership."

The Turks themselves are keenly aware of Europe's ambivalence and make no secret that they are offended by it. ''Either [the EU] will show political maturity and become a global power -- or it will end up a Christian club," Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey told reporters in Ankara, Turkey's capital, on the eve of the talks.

Although a small portion of Turkey lies west of the Bosporus Strait on the continent of Europe, the bulk of the 296,000-square-mile nation lies in Asia. The country's population is roughly 70 million, which would make it the second most populous state in the EU, after Germany.

Economically, Turkey lags behind even the poorest nations of eastern Europe, with a per capita gross domestic product of $7,400 compared with the European average of $26,900, according to US figures.

''The European Union is not in great shape: There are constitutional issues, there are economic challenges, and there is some degree of 'enlargement fatigue' " following last year's admission of 10 nations, mainly from Eastern Europe," said Ulrike Guerot, senior trans-Atlantic fellow for Europe in the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund, a US-German research organization. ''But the hope is that there will be a sober and technical debate over whether Turkey belongs in the EU, not a divisive, emotional, and in some ways irrelevant controversy over European identity. Europe has never had one clear identity. The identity changes with history."

But many mainstream European politicians believe fervently that either Turkey has no business in the EU or that it should be granted only limited membership status. Angela Merkel, leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Party who is likely to become the country's next chancellor, made opposition to Turkey's membership a centerpiece of her campaign.

Although Turkey belongs to the NATO, the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe, and other prominent Western groups, its poor human-rights record and Third World living standards have raised skepticism about whether it deserves full membership in the EU, which places great emphasis on human dignity and welfare.

Turkey cannot become an EU member until at least 2014, the first year after the next EU multiyear budget, which must include financing for the costly entry of a new member state.