Shadow of war clouds two legacies

WASHINGTON -- It began as an awkward, forced political marriage and developed into a strong personal and strategic bond, as President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain joined to wage war in Iraq and battle terrorism around the world.

In February 2001, Bush struggled to identify what he had in common with a British leader who had been very close to Bush's predecessor, Bill Clinton. ``Well, we both use Colgate toothpaste," Bush said at a Camp David summit with Blair.

Five years later, the two leaders are finding themselves tethered to the same political woes, beset by low popularity ratings, frustration over the Iraq war, and voter discontent that imperils the futures of each man's political parties at home. As they meet today at the White House, the men are now anxiously searching for a way to protect their individual legacies.

Bush, with approval ratings in the low 30s, is having trouble getting his own party to back his immigration reform proposal, and the president's handling of Iraq and Hurricane Katrina are threatening to upset the GOP's control of Congress. Blair, whose popularity hovers around 26 percent, is facing calls to resign before his term is up at the end of 2009.

``I call them the coalition of the embattled, or the axis of failure," said Jonathan Clarke , a former British diplomat now with the Cato Institute in Washington. ``They've both reached a common point in their trajectories."

The leaders' difficulties compound a weakening in the alliance between the United States and Europe, where powerful, longtime leaders have been defeated or are struggling in the polls. Two of Bush's supporters on the Iraq war -- former Spanish prime minister José María Aznar and former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy -- are now out of office. President Jacques Chirac of France is suffering from abysmally low approval ratings, and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is gone after the defeat of his Social Democrats last year. Europe as a whole is bickering over the details of European Union integration.

Bush traveled to a miffed Europe soon after his second inauguration last year, seeking to mend fences over Iraq with a region that has long been a loyal ally of the United States. But the departure of veteran leaders -- even those who opposed the war -- is leaving a gap at a time when Bush and Blair are at historically weak points in their terms, foreign policy specialists say.

``Everybody is desperately trying to keep it [the Western alliance] going, to re-create the good feelings," Clarke said.

There are some signs that Europe and the United States will strengthen their bond; the election in Germany of US-friendly Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to improve relations, analysts said. But for Bush and Blair, only a turnaround in Iraq is likely to salvage their authority and places in history, said Nile Gardiner , who was an aide to former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.

``This week's summit certainly marks the beginning of the end of the Bush-Blair era of dominance on the world stage," said Gardiner, now with the Heritage Foundation, a Washington think tank. While US and British leaders will always have great influence by virtue of their countries' military might, he said, ``Blair has become an immensely weak figure in Britain. His power is being eroded by the day" amid financial and sex scandals tarnishing the Labor Party. Under the British parliamentary system, Blair can be pushed out through a no-confidence vote against his party.

Blair was a public relations asset for Bush in the build-up to the war, charming Congress with an eloquent address in 2003 defending the decision to go to war.

But as the war dragged on, Bush and Blair ``hurt each other," said Lawrence Korb , a former Reagan administration official who is now with the Center for American Progress. ``Blair enabled Bush to go and do the thing that has caused Bush problems. Bush, by doing it poorly, has caused Blair problems."

The two leaders appeared to be odd partners when they first met. Bush, with his Texas drawl, brash style, and cowboy boots, stood in sharp contrast to the more academic Blair, a man known for his polished oratory and proper demeanor. Blair had also worked closely with Clinton, sharing the former president's neoliberal ``third way" ideology and personal charisma.

But the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and subsequent march to war in Iraq unearthed the commonalities of Bush and Blair, who share strong religious beliefs and a conviction that political power should be used to promote democracy, said Robert Pfaltzgraff Jr. , professor of international security at the Fletcher School at Tufts University.

Now, Pfaltzgraff said, the Bush-Blair relationship is one of the strongest US-British alliances in history.

The two leaders are expected to discuss Iraq at their session today and in a joint appearance tonight, although White House spokesman Tony Snow said the leaders would not announce a timetable for troop withdrawal. ``I think you're going to get a restatement of the general principles under which coalition troops stay or go," Snow said.

The summit will not dramatically enhance the reputations of either leader, but the visit might give a small boost to Blair, who needs to show he is still in control despite his expected departure in the next year or so, said Robin Niblett , a Europe specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

``He's desperately, a bit like George Bush, trying to demonstrate that he has a plan, that there is a potential positive legacy in the UK-US alliance in Iraq," Niblett said. ``Coming to George Bush to talk about it is seen as getting down to the business of governing."