In France, immigrant vote could decide election
ARGENTEUIL, France -- It is ironic that Nicolas Sarkozy, the front-runner in France's presidential race, finds himself on the defensive in the immigrant slums that could play a key role in today's first-round election.
As France's top law enforcement official, the hard-charging Sarkozy spent a lot of time in the nation's tense housing projects. As a streetwise descendant of Hungarian and Greek-Jewish immigrants, he has a better instinctive understanding of those areas than most politicians, even some of his critics say.
But just before the riots that shook France in October 2005, Sarkozy paid a nocturnal visit to a grim housing project in this industrial city on the northwest periphery of Paris. When a young mob hurled objects and insults at him, he responded with characteristically tough talk. Ever since, he has been the nemesis of restive street gangs -- and the target of political rivals who call him divisive.
Whether the accusation is fair or not, Sarkozy has largely avoided housing projects during the campaign for fear of new unrest or a politically damaging sound bite. His opponents have exploited that vulnerability by campaigning in immigrant areas, where registration spiked during the past year.
New voters in the traditionally leftist bastions could help determine a tight race in which center-rightist Sarkozy, Socialist Ségolène Royal, centrist Francois Bayrou, and far-rightist Jean-Marie Le Pen lead a field of 12 candidates for the May 6 runoff. Voters will narrow the field to two candidates today.
Sarkozy, 52, has an apparently strong lead and is expected to qualify with ease for the runoff, according to most polls and political analysts. Royal, 53, looks likely to come in second, setting up a showdown between the two big parties.
Bayrou, 55, is considered to have shifted toward the left in this race. Le Pen, 78, remains on the far right and has run a strong anti-immigration campaign.
Many voters remain undecided, pollsters say, and no one is ruling out surprises. The electorate in first-round elections is volatile and inclined to cast protest votes.
Voting began a day early in some overseas French territories yesterday, including two islands off the coast of Canada.
"It's true that after the riots of 2005, many young people accepted our appeal," said Argenteuil Socialist leader Ali Ramdhane, a former city councilor. "In a way, Sarkozy helped us," Ramdhane said, "Our slogan was, 'Vote instead of vandalize.' We told the young people that their strength rested in their voter identification card."
But Sarkozy's rivals might be simplifying matters. The former interior minister has won admirers on France's toughest streets precisely because of his plain- spoken, pugnacious attitude and his crime-fighting record as interior minister, analysts say.
