Europe voices hope, caution on Sarkozy

BERLIN -- Leaders across Europe welcomed the election of Nicolas Sarkozy as France's next president, but enthusiasm yesterday was tempered with caution, particularly in Germany. While leaders hoped that Sarkozy would overhaul the French economy, they questioned his protectionist policies and voiced concern that his strong opposition to Turkey joining the European Union could divide the 27-member bloc.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, was quick to congratulate Sarkozy on Sunday night. "The German-French friendship will continue to be the basis to secure lasting peace, democracy, and prosperity in Europe," said Merkel, who, like Sarkozy, belongs to the new generation of leaders born after World War II. The European Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, said he was confident that Sarkozy would play the role of "motor" in helping to overhaul EU institutions.

Underlying this optimism is the feeling that Sarkozy's focus on overhauling the French economy would make the country more outward-looking and less fearful of globalization -- and thus have a liberalizing influence on the EU.

But analysts caution that portrayals of Sarkozy as a revolutionary reformer in the style of Margaret Thatcher, the former conservative British prime minister, were exaggerated. While Sarkozy is considered to have more free-market impulses than outgoing President Jacques Chirac, he is unlikely to jettison entirely the French protectionist model.

As finance minister in 2004, Sarkozy brokered a 2 billion euro state bailout of the French engineering firm Alstom. He also blocked attempts by Berlin to sell Aventis, a French-German pharmaceuticals company to a Swiss investor and instead brought it under French control.

Turkey is another contentious issue. Sarkozy made his opposition to Turkish entry an election issue. He shares Merkel's view that Turkey should be offered a privileged partnership instead of full EU membership, while Britain, Spain, and the new member states from Eastern Europe support full membership. Merkel, however, has never blocked accession negotiations. According to EU diplomats, Sarkozy is expected to halt the opening of further negotiating chapters.

"The unending rhetoric on the privileged partnership gives rise to suspicions about the EU's true intentions," said Sinan Ulgen, chairman of EDAM, an Istanbul-based think tank. "Turkey more than ever needs the anchor of stability that the EU process provides."

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, said Monday he did not wish to "see the statements made by Mr. Sarkozy during the election campaign affecting bilateral ties."

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the Spanish prime minister, said he had big differences with Sarkozy, not only over Turkey, but also on immigration, another issue on which Sarkozy has pledged a very tough policy. Zapatero, who telephoned Sarkozy Monday morning to congratulate him, called him a "competent politician" who represented "an open and modern right that can satisfy the desire for change in a country that yearns to recover its self-confidence," a spokes man for Zapatero said.

Russia's reaction was muted. Sergey Karaganov, dean of international studies at the Higher School of Economics, said in a telephone interview: "The only change I see will be the loss of a personal relationship with Chirac."

"With changes in Germany, France, Italy, and the United States, there is an element of unpredictability" for Russia, he added.

Analysts said Sarkozy's foreign policy agenda could ultimately depend on two things: whether the Franco-German alliance can again become the driving force inside the EU; and whether Gordon Brown, who is expected to succeed Tony Blair as Britain's prime minister, will re engage with Europe.

Charles Grant, director of the London-based Center for European Reform, argued that Brown could hold the key to Europe's future direction. Brown has come under pressure not to support a revised institutional treaty. If he rejects such a treaty, Grant argues that the bloc would be plunged into institutional chaos. .