BRUSSELS - The European Union sent a signal yesterday to Serbia that its path to membership would be opened if it rejected a nationalist, pro-Russian candidate in the presidential runoff Sunday and if it worked to hunt and hand over war criminals from the Balkan wars of the 1990s.
EU foreign ministers had hoped to sign a far-reaching accord with Belgrade that would have strengthened political and economic ties between Serbia and the bloc and helped clear the way for eventual EU membership. Such a gesture had been calculated to give a political lift to the pro-Western incumbent, President Boris Tadic, who faces a tight race against Tomislav Nikolic, the pro-Russian nationalist.
Instead, under pressure from Belgium and the Netherlands, the EU offered Belgrade a circumscribed deal that would expand cooperation covering trade and visas but falls short of opening the way to EU entry talks.
The Netherlands and Belgium said a more comprehensive agreement would be signed only if Belgrade makes progress on handing over indicted war criminals, most notably Ratko Mladic, the former Bosnian Serb general who is charged with masterminding the 1995 Srebrenica massacre of more than 7,000 Bosnian Muslims.
The issue of Serbian war crimes is particularly sensitive in the Netherlands, in part because the Dutch government resigned in 2001 after Dutch peacekeepers were accused of failing to prevent the 1995 massacre.
"We will not sign an agreement until there is full cooperation" from Belgrade with the UN war crimes tribunal, said Deputy Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands. The Netherlands resisted appeals from other EU governments to sign the accord, known as a Stabilization and Association Agreement.
Olli Rehn, the EU enlargement commissioner, and Javier Solana, the foreign affairs chief of the bloc, stressed yesterday the need to sign the agreement quickly in order to help Serbia remain on a European path. Rehn added that full cooperation with the UN tribunal in the Hague should be a precondition to expanded ties with Belgrade, but he hinted that he could show flexibility.
"What is at stake is that the Serbian people are choosing between a European future and their nationalist past," he said. "I trust Serbia will choose a European future."
Dimitrij Rupel, the foreign minister of Slovenia, which now holds the rotating EU presidency, hinted that if Serbia elected a moderate president it could become a member of the European Union within a few years.
Analysts said the EU's attempt to link the outcome of the Serbian elections with EU relations could backfire by emboldening nationalists in Serbia while potentially weakening Tadic, who advocates Western-style changes in Serbia.
Nikolic, in contrast, has sought to exploit wounded national pride by playing on the growing disenchantment over US and EU backing of independence for Kosovo, the breakaway province that is poised to declare independence next month.
If Nikolic is elected, EU diplomats fear he will marginalize Serbia while taking tough retaliatory measures against Kosovo and countries that support its independence.
Senior EU officials said they expected Kosovo to declare independence in mid-February - or at the latest, mid-March - with recognition by key EU countries and Washington to follow.
But an EU official close to the negotiations over Kosovo's independence said that if Nikolic won the elections, Kosovo's independence declaration would be accelerated, whereas a Tadic victory would give the EU and Washington more diplomatic breathing room.
"Nikolic is unpredictable, so if he wins, we will want to move faster to preempt him," the official said. "Otherwise, you never know what he will do."
