MOSCOW - Kosovo's looming independence, and promises of quick US and European recognition, have undercut and infuriated Russia at a moment when this oil-rich behemoth is eager to show that its global clout has been restored, analysts say.
Russian officials have spent weeks issuing dire assessments of the UN-administered province's upcoming declaration of independence from Serbia, expected to be announced this weekend.
The Russians have repeatedly derided Kosovo's possible change in status as a Pandora's box that will destabilize Europe by setting off a chain reaction of shifting borders. They have blasted the West for embracing Kosovo's independence without taking the matter to the United Nations Security Council, where Russia wields a veto.
But the world doesn't seem to be paying much attention, and underneath the bluster, Russia has found itself relatively powerless to steer the situation to its liking. At a time when Moscow is seeking to play the strong man again after a decade of post-Soviet weakness, this sudden impotence is tough to stomach.
"The Russian position, in the end, will be humiliation," said Lilia Shevtsova, a senior associate at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
In a last-ditch effort to stave off the declaration, Russia has called for an emergency session of the Security Council. But the United States and many European countries have already indicated their readiness to recognize Kosovo's independence.
The European Union is preparing to send an 1,800-member security and justice force to the province as early as this weekend, setting the stage for the exit of UN officials who have administered the area since 1999, when NATO drove out Serbian troops seen as abusing Kosovo's mostly Muslim population. Russia and Serbia say the EU mission is illegal.
Kosovo's independence is sure to dramatically increase tensions at a time when Russia and the United States are already clashing over a proposed American missile defense system, Iran's nuclear program, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ambitions of several former Soviet states. Some Russian analysts described the US support for Kosovo's ambitions as a blunder on par with the invasion of Iraq.
"This will be used as yet another confirmation of the allegation that the West is not playing by the rules," said Andrei Kortunov, president of the New Eurasia foundation, adding: "It's yet another manifestation that it's difficult, if not impossible, to deal with the West on serious matters."
