The Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) is expected to publicly state tomorrow that the IRA leadership did not sanction the murder of Paul Quinn from Cullyhanna in south Armagh last October.
The IMC yesterday presented its 18th report, which deals with Mr Quinn's murder and other paramilitary issues, to the British and Irish governments.
While it will argue against claims that the IRA leadership did not sanction the murder of Mr Quinn, it is expected to state that current and former members of the IRA from the south Armagh area were involved in the beating to death of Mr Quinn in farm buildings in Co Monaghan after he was lured over the Border.
This finding contradicts the assertion by Sinn Féin leaders such as Gerry Adams and Newry and Armagh MP and Northern Executive Minister Conor Murphy that the IRA was not involved.
Both London and Dublin will be relieved that the IMC does not implicate the IRA leadership in Mr Quinn's killing.
Any such IMC indictment of the IRA leadership could have had catastrophic consequences for the powersharing Stormont administration. Senior DUP politicians had indicated that if Mr Quinn's murder was ordered or sanctioned at IRA army council or leadership level then it was likely to collapse the DUP-Sinn Féin dominated Northern Executive.
Nonetheless, the IMC's findings that IRA members were involved in Mr Quinn's murder is expected to cause an unpredictable degree of political turbulence.
The IMC report is likely to trigger further calls for all IRA structures, including its army council, to be dismantled.
Unionists are also likely to use the report to justify their refusal to contemplate at this stage the transfer of policing and justice powers to the Northern Executive.
The report is also expected to put further pressure on Sinn Féin president Mr Adams and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness to shift from the party's position that the murder of Mr Quinn was carried out by "criminals" and not by the IRA.
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