ST. ANDREWS, Scotland—Finance ministers from the world's leading rich and developing countries are gathering here Friday to begin the difficult negotiations over how to even out the imbalances weighing on the world economy.
Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 countries plan to hammer out a peer review process aimed at closing damaging trade, consumption and budget gaps -- but long-standing disagreements suggest that progress will be torturously slow.
Officials are also likely to repeat their pledge to keep economic stimulus measures in place until a global economic recovery is assured -- even as growth in key markets provides a hopeful backdrop for the meeting at a seaside hotel at St. Andrews, the Scottish university town known as the home of golf.
Host Britain and its Treasury chief Alistair Darling have stressed the need for continued stimulus, reflecting the fact that it remains officially recession, while the United States, represented by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, is already recording renewed growth along with Germany and Japan.
Some countries are more eager to begin sketching out exit strategies to unwind the recent massive government spending, low interest rates and expansion of the money supply that are supporting the world economy. Those disagreements have increased, complicating the search for real reform of the global financial system.
Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty acknowledged on the eve of the meeting that there were "disparate views" on how to address the problem of banks being too big to fail.
"We need to be comprehensive in our approach," Flaherty told reporters in Ottawa. "So we need to talk not only about larger institutions, but also some of the smaller institutions, and make sure that we're not creating two-tiered involvement by government."
A French official said this week that his country is worried that the momentum behind tightening rules on compensation is flagging and in danger of falling by the wayside.
The British government this week announced the breakup of two major banks that received funds in a state bailout last year, but the United States has not been receptive to suggestions that banks' retail functions be separated from their more speculative ventures.
Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said that the meeting would be focused on developing a framework for balanced growth, "developing principles for existing extraordinary measures introduced in response to the global financial and economic crisis."
The officials are seeking to decide what economic data each country will submit for review by the International Monetary Fund, deputized by the G-20 leaders to oversee countries' compliance with agree measures. They will also set deadlines to review the results before G-20 leaders meet again next summer.
Leaders agreed at their September summit in Pittsburgh to subject their economic policies to the scrutiny of a peer review. That process would determine whether each country's efforts were "collectively consistent" with sustainable global growth.
The goal is to avoid repeating problems like huge trade deficits and credit-fueled consumption in the U.S., and massive trade surpluses and savings in China and elsewhere. China's appetite to fund U.S. debt by buying Treasuries was seen as playing a major role in fueling the U.S. housing boom and subsequent collapse.
The IMF will review the individual country data and submit a report that would form the basis for discussion at the June meeting in Canada.
It is unclear, however, just how much teeth and detail the reports will have -- given governments resistance to outside pressure to change their economic policies.
"Harmonizing targets for these variables is a difficult enough task in one country," said Lewis. "It would seem well nigh impossible to accomplish the same feat for all G-20 members simultaneously."
"I think everybody is on the same page, it's just that page is no longer marked urgent," said Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser at the Ernst & Young Item Club.
"The issue is moved to how we are dealing with this in the long term to prevent a recurrence," he added of the task confronting officials meeting in St. Andrews. "As we've seen, it's very difficult to get any kind of international consensus on factors like remuneration and bonuses."
There's also resistance to confront exchange rate issues, which could play a key role in correcting trade imbalances.
While the weakness of the U.S. dollar and the strength of the Chinese yuan will almost certainly be discussed to some degree, the currency issue is not on the formal agenda of the St. Andrews meeting.
Politicians and bank officials from big exporters, including China, that hold huge amounts of U.S. Treasuries as reserves have expressed unease with this situation as the value of their dollar holdings falters.
The recent climb by the euro and pound against the dollar also makes Europe's exports more expensive, potentially harming recovery in the region.
There is a growing push for China to unshackle the yuan from its dollar peg, allowing it to appreciate, while the dollar's role as the world's dominant currency has been under scrutiny.
"It's a massive diplomatic issue that the Chinese are highly sensitive about," said CentreForum economist Giles Wilkes.
The issue of climate change will also be on the agenda over the weekend as two years of negotiations among world leaders approach a climax at a major climate conference opening Dec. 7 in Copenhagen.
The G-20 is comprised of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United States and the rotating EU presidency.
