Venezuela readies for Aug. vote on whether to oust president

CARACAS -- Setting up a showdown in this politically divided country, election authorities announced yesterday that a referendum that could oust President Hugo Chavez would be held in mid-August.

The announcement, which had been widely anticipated, is likely to kick off a furious campaign that Chavez and his opponents already have said they expect to win.

Recent polls show the opposition leading, but Chavez's once-sagging support has rebounded in recent months as he spends millions of dollars on education, health, and other social programs aimed at the poor, his political base.

If Chavez loses the Aug. 15 referendum, elections would be held within 30 days to choose a leader to serve the remaining two years of his term. It is unclear whether Chavez could run in the new election.

''I think Chavez is in a relatively good position," said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a Washington policy group.

But Michael Shifter, a vice president at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, said the vote ''can go either way."

The stakes in the referendum could not be higher in this nation of 24 million that is a major exporter of crude oil to the United States. A former army paratrooper twice elected president, Chavez is carrying out a self-described revolution aimed at redistributing Venezuela's vast oil wealth to help the country's long-ignored, impoverished majority. A fiery populist, Chavez also has reoriented Venezuela's foreign policy, forming a close alliance with President Fidel Castro of Cuba while opposing the US-backed Western Hemisphere free-trade zone.

The loose coalition of labor leaders, civic groups, and political parties opposing Chavez charge that the president is trying to install a Cuban-style authoritarian regime. They denounce his government as corrupt and ineffective, saying he uses populist rhetoric to rally the masses while doing little concrete to improve their lives. The two sides have been locked in a political battle for two years, with the country buffeted by bloody demonstrations and devastating national strikes aimed at forcing Chavez's resignation.

The opposition must secure nearly 3.8 million votes to oust Chavez. The nation has about 12 million registered voters.