Chavez military moves eyed

CARACAS -- President Hugo Chavez's weapons deals with Russia, his curbs on military cooperation with the United States, and his plans to train as many as 2 million Venezuelan civilians to repel a possible invasion by an ''imperialist" superpower have the United States and his domestic critics worried about what the leftist former military officer is up to.

Chavez insists that the moves are purely defensive, born of an overdue need to update obsolete military hardware and protect his country from nations that might want to take control of South America's largest petroleum- producing state.

His domestic opponents scoff at the idea that Washington would ever invade Venezuela, and charge that Chavez's true intention is to arm a huge cadre of loyal reservists who would protect him against any internal uprising and to promote himself as a militarized counterweight to US influence in Latin America.

Even more troubling, say his detractors in Washington, is that as Chavez grows closer to his major ally, Cuban leader Fidel Castro, his arms purchases and indoctrination of civilian militias could be part of a strategy to restructure Venezuelan democracy in the image of Cuban-style militarized socialism and foment leftist revolutions throughout the continent.

US military strategists say they are increasingly concerned that radical movements inspired by Chavez could foment such revolution. Since the late 1990s, the political mainstream in Latin America has shifted leftward, largely in reaction to the perceived failure of free- market economics, and leftists have been elected to lead Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, and Ecuador, as well as Venezuela.

Chavez's supporters at home counter that the United States has a century-long history of open as well as covert armed intervention in the region's domestic politics, so it has no right to question Venezuela's defense preparations.

''We never ask what the US Marines are doing," said Carlos Roque Espinoza Leon, a pro-Chavez defense specialist who serves in Venezuela's National Assembly. ''Peru has 500,000 rifles and no one says anything. Colombia is the most militarized country in Latin America, and no one complains.

''US history is full of aggression in Latin America, and we have to do whatever we must to protect our country," he said.

Chavez, who was first elected in 1998 and who has a popularity rating of 71 percent, according to independent polling firm Datanalisis, has famously said that his so-called Bolivarian revolution is ''peaceful, but not unarmed." Alberto Garrido, a Venezuelan military analyst, said Chavez is looking for allies in Russia, China, and Iran to ''promote a multi-polar world" to counteract US dominance and encourage grassroots movements in Latin America to throw off Washington's influence.

In May, Chavez's government announced details of an $18.6 million deal with a Russian firm to purchase 100,000 AK-103 assault rifles, the modern update on the Kalashnikov, along with 30 rounds of ammunition each and the technology transfer for Venezuela to manufacture the rifles. The deal works out to $186.22 per rifle, considerably less costly than the US mail-order price of $825 to $850 for the same weapon.

Venezuela also intends to buy 10 Russian helicopters, 10 Spanish transport planes, and six Spanish naval craft, and is negotiating with Brazil to buy about two dozen air support and training planes, according to government officials.

Chavez has insisted -- and even his staunchest retired military critics here agree -- that the purchases are essential to update old weaponry, especially glaring in the case of the military's decades-old Belgian FAL rifles.

''We can't say Chavez is engaged in an arms buildup -- that's an exaggeration," said retired General Fernando Ochoa Antich, who was defense minister in 1992 when then-Lieutenant Colonel Chavez launched a failed coup. ''Venezuela hasn't purchased arms in 25 years, and he's not aggressively buying weapons in a way that would threaten his neighbors.

''But Venezuela has never bought Russian arms before. Why is he doing it? To make himself independent from the US," Ochoa said. ''But why is he buying a caliber of rifle popular among subversive forces in Latin America? . . . The political support he gives to radical leftist movements makes him a continental menace."

The Pentagon has openly questioned what Chavez will do with the old FAL rifles, and whether he might share weapons or ammunition with guerrilla forces in Latin America. The US government has provided no evidence, however, of Chavez arming or funding leftist insurgencies.

Military analysts and specialists on the Colombian FARC guerrillas say the rebels have plenty of money for weapons from drug trafficking and would not be interested in old Belgian rifles, nor in assistance from Chavez. But a 2003 study published by the US Defense Intelligence Agency reported that among weapons seized from Colombian guerrillas from 1998 to 2001 that had markings of foreign militaries, more than half were of Venezuelan origin. The implication was that corrupt or sympathetic members of the Venezuelan military may be aiding guerrillas.

Perhaps more distressing to Chavez's domestic opponents is the ideological training that critics say he has in mind for the military and for new civilian reservists.

Earlier this year, Chavez called for ''revolutionary units" to start preparing the public to resist a superpower aggressor, saying the first step would be to train from 100,000 to 2 million volunteers in the coming years to back up active-duty armed forces, which military analysts estimate number 83,000. ''People's defense units" would be created in neighborhoods, state companies, and the free university established under Chavez, and would report directly to the president.

The government insists the reserves will support the armed forces -- not act as a fifth column against a possible anti-Chavez coup. ''The reserves are not to be used as shock troops for any political party," said Espinoza, the pro-Chavez lawmaker. ''But if there were a civil war, it would be up to each person to take their own side."

General Julio Ramon Quintero Viloria, commander of the reserves, said in an interview that the armed forces hope to train 50,000 civilians over 20 weekends in the second half of this year, and could train 300,000 more next year. ''We don't want to be the colony of any empire, and we have to be ready for any possibility," Quintero said.

Last month, 100,000 reservists engaged in a massive war game with the Venezuelan Navy, in a mission to repel a stronger country that had invaded. A few days earlier, 40 employees of the state oil company participated in a similar exercise with 1,200 soldiers.

Pro-Chavez circles here warn of ''asymmetrical warfare," a term coined by US military strategists to describe a conflict between unequal combatants, with the weaker side employing guerrilla tactics. Chavez loyalists fear that the United States, which has given $3.3 billion in mostly military aid to Colombia in the past five years, could instigate a proxy war between the two neighbors, with the US aiding Colombia, as a way to oust Chavez and control Venezuelan oil.

In an interview, a senior US official dismissed the notion that the United States wants to invade Venezuela as ''complete, utter nonsense. . . . The Chavista side wishes to make the relationship negative because they've made a political calculation that Mr. Chavez reached power by constantly being in confrontation with the US."

Another development that has troubled the United States is Chavez's rollback of military cooperation, including joint exercises. For 50 years, the US military had a ''cooperation office" in a Venezuelan fort, which Chavez shut down a year ago. In April, five US military trainers and students participating in an exchange program were ordered to leave the country.

Analysts say that though it is likely Chavez is trying to indoctrinate his public and armed forces, there is no proof that he will use those forces to aid leftist revolutions elsewhere.

''We want the world to know that we're not preparing to attack anyone," said Lorenzo Campos, 41, a farmer in Anzoategui state in northern Venezuela who is training as a reservist. ''Our mission is to protect Venezuela."