Castro may have Parkinson's, CIA says

WASHINGTON -- The CIA concluded recently that Fidel Castro suffers from Parkinson's disease and has warned US policymakers to be ready for trouble if the 79-year-old ruler's health erodes over the next few years.

If true, the CIA's assessment of the nonfatal but debilitating condition would mean that the Cuban leader may be entering a period in which doctors say the symptoms grow more evident, medicines are less effective, and mental functions start to deteriorate.

Although Castro's brother Raul, head of the armed forces, has been anointed as his successor, analysts fear the possibility of a tumultuous period in which an incapacitated Castro might refuse to give up power but might no longer project his personality to Cuba's 11 million people.

''For Fidel to start shaking in a real and substantial way -- in public -- sends quite a powerful message to people around the world," said Frank O. Mora, a professor of national security strategy at The National War College.

The CIA began briefing senior members of the State Department and lawmakers about one year ago that its doctors had become convinced that Castro was diagnosed with the disease around 1998, said two officials familiar with the briefings. Both asked for anonymity because leaking the contents of the briefing could violate US laws.

There has been no independent confirmation of Castro's illness, or any indication of how the CIA came to its conclusion. The State Department and the CIA declined to comment.