Hard-driving Colombian leads for 2d term

BOGOTÁ -- Intense and hard-driving, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe doesn't hesitate to call aides on their cellphones before dawn when a brainstorm hits him or on Sundays when he needs help answering a question at one of his town hall meetings.

His passionate, hands-on approach to leadership has helped him drastically improve security and jumpstart economic growth in this war-ravaged nation -- and has made him the frontrunner to win reelection tomorrow. It would be a rare victory of a staunchly pro-American candidate in Latin America after a string of wins by leftists.

Numerous polls predict a solid win for the diminutive, right-of-center politician who resembles a school principal in his tidy sweater vests and spectacles, yet is as fiery as any Latin strongman. But Uribe, the most popular Colombian president in memory, will face daunting expectations in a second four-year term.

Colombia's 45 million people will be counting on Uribe to end Latin America's last leftist insurgency, to reform the country's scandal-ridden state internal security agency, and to address gaping social needs.

Popular sentiment is certainly with the 53-year-old president. At his final campaign rally in the capital last Friday, the main plaza was awash with banners and supporters urging, ``Keep going, President!"

``Since he's been president, Colombia is a safer, calmer place," said Berta Salamanca, 55, a housewife, echoing the sentiments of many at the rally. ``The moment there is peace in Colombia, we the poor will be able to rise up and live better. The very fact that a mother can go to bed without worrying so much that her sons will taken by guerrillas is a huge victory."

Uribe fought for a constitutional amendment allowing him to run again, which detractors say he secured with promises of cushy jobs for legislators' relatives.

But polls showed that a majority of Colombians wanted four more years of a president who has made life safer: murder rates are near a two-decade low, and kidnappings have declined 62 percent under Uribe.

To the surprise of pollsters, Carlos Gaviria, 69, a leftist former constitutional court chief justice and Uribe's former law professor has emerged as the president's strongest challenger. Nicknamed Father Christmas for his white beard and mild manner, Gaviria leads a coalition spanning communists to left-moderates. Horatio Serpa, the candidate of the Liberal Party--which for decades dominated Colombian politics -- has slipped precipitously in the polls in his third run for president.

With 60 percent of Colombians saying they feel safer than a year ago and 43 percent saying the economy has improved, according to Jorge Londoño of Gallup Colombia, Uribe is polling between 30 and 40 points above second-place Gaviria.

Gaviria acknowledged in an interview that while the rest of Latin America has been swinging left at the polls, Colombia is unlikely to vote for a leftist such as himself as long as there is an armed Marxist guerrilla movement terrorizing the nation.

While he has accused the center-right incumbent of sometimes trampling on rights in his campaign for security, Gaviria admitted, ``I admire his constancy, his perseverance, his commitment to achieve certain goals."

Uribe's triumphs include negotiating a peace with right-wing death squads, boosting security forces in forgotten regions, and increasing foreign investment five-fold. But critics say he has been soft on murderous right-wing paramilitaries and permitted the military to commit excesses in fighting rebels. Many also question his support for a free-trade deal with Washington that could hurt Colombian farmers and mom-and-pop businesses.

For all his popularity among those who see him as a relentless, can-do leader who has restored a sense of national confidence, Uribe is perceived by some as authoritarian, ill-tempered, and intolerant of dissent.

Furious over recent articles exposing scandals at Colombia's state security agency and alleging vote-fixing in the last presidential elections, Uribe called the country's leading newsmagazine editor ``unpatriotic" for printing the stories. He has accused other critical journalists of being guerrilla sympathizers or ill-informed.

He refused to participate in campaign debates with the other candidates and snubbed a radio interview when he found out his rivals would be present.

``He's intolerant, arrogant, very convinced of his power; he feels he can do what he wants," complained Ramiro Bejarano, a former director of the state security agency. Bejarano says the president has intimidated the media into silence and the public is largely unaware of serious scandals in his administration.

Recent magazine reports alleged that state security officials were helping right-wing paramilitaries target union leaders for assassination and warning paramilitary commanders of planned operations against them. Uribe fired officials and opened investigations, angrily saying that corrupt public servants should be ``lynched," and the scandals left him largely unscathed.

Uribe has earned the fervent loyalty of much of the upper class, middle class, and working classes by reducing violence, expanding healthcare and housing, and achieving 5 percent annual growth and lower unemployment rates.

In his weekly town hall meetings in neglected parts of the country, he hears problems from common people previous leaders never visited. Last year, the government says, 3 million people in remote locales gained services such as drinking water and electricity for the first time.

``He's able to communicate with people in a tone showing he's concerned about their situation and that he's a leader who's going to do something about their problems," said Claudia López, a political analyst and columnist. ``One may not like him, but one must acknowledge that Uribe has completed what he promised to do."

Others see his town meetings as a populist ploy masking paternalistic authority. ``All power is concentrated in his figure and that weakens democratic institutions," complained Fabian Sanabria, a professor of sociology at the National University in Bogotá .

Born to wealthy cattle ranchers near the northwestern city of Medellín, Uribe studied administration and management at Harvard University and was a visiting professor at Oxford, but maintains a thick countryside accent and emphasizes his common-man credentials as a graduate of a public university.

Trained as a lawyer, he served as Medellín's mayor, city councilor, senator, and governor of Antioquia. He abandoned the centrist Liberal Party to form his own party, Colombia First, and came from behind to win the presidency in 2002 on a platform of ``democratic security."

An avid horseman with a taste for Colombian straw cowboy hats, aides say Uribe rises at 4:30 a.m. to work out on an elliptical machine while watching the news, then eats breakfast with his wife and two sons in their 20s. An ascetic who reputedly doesn't smoke, drink, or enjoy parties, he works seven days a week and demands the same of his staff, they say.

``I worked with him for one very long year, and the truth is he's tireless. He works till midnight Monday to Sunday, he never rests," marveled Rafael Nieto, former vice-minister of justice. ``He's a micromanager with a memory like a computer, but he has a global vision, too. . . . He's like a conductor of an orchestra who's always telling his ministers what they need to be doing."

A survivor of 13 assassination attempts, Uribe lost his father and his brother to attacks by leftist guerrillas, and his hatred of the insurgents burns white-hot.

Critics say that his tragic history has made Uribe too sympathetic to rightist militias formed by landowners in the 1980s to fight guerrillas. Human rights groups say he gave paramilitaries a sweetheart peace deal that shields militia chiefs from extradition for drug trafficking and long prison terms for some of the war's worst atrocities. And they say he has not adequately funded work programs for 30,000 demobilized fighters who are ripe to be recruited into criminal gangs.

Uribe expanded the military and police by 25 percent, deploying them to push the 17,000-strong Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, further into the mountains and jungles.

The annual number of ``terrorist acts" has dropped 63 percent since he took office, according to government figures.

Uribe began talks with a smaller rebel group, the National Liberation Army, but discussions have stalled.

Carlos Patiño, a political scientist at the National University, credits Uribe with sending security forces to far-flung regions, but estimates 35 percent of the country remains outside of state control.

Uribe has failed to capture the top leadership of the FARC or destroy their military capability, Patiño added.

``He may win the election, but what lies ahead are immense problems," said Patiño, ``because expectations are much greater than for his first term."