Few expect change under Raúl Castro

Fidel Castro, the revolutionary icon who has thumbed his nose at Washington while ruling with an iron fist for nearly a half -century, was quoted in a statement read on state television last night saying his health was stable and that he was recovering from intestinal surgery earlier in the day. Although his illness is at least his third serious health scare since 2001, this is the first time in 47 years that the 79-year-old Castro has publicly handed over governance, prompting a flurry of speculation about the future of the communist island 90 miles south of Florida.

From his nuclear brinkmanship during the Cuban Missile Crisis to his crackdowns on democracy campaigners at home, Castro has confounded a succession of US presidents, who have steadily tightened a four-decade embargo against the island.

But the hand over to Raúl -- whether temporary or permanent -- should be seen as a tightly controlled and anticipated succession, not as a transition to a softer form of government, many analysts warned.

``If [Fidel] Castro dies, Raúl will simply attempt to keep the Cuban ship of state on the same course," said Mark Falcoff, author of ``Cuba the Morning After: Confronting Castro's Legacy," and an emeritus scholar at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.

The view among some Cuban exiles and US policymakers that the death of the charismatic leader will lead to spontaneous popular uprisings or a peaceful, democratic transition ``is a fantasy," Falcoff said.

Despite widespread unhappiness in Cuba with a state-controlled economy that has yielded low salaries, rationing, and shortages, the communist government is deeply entrenched, analysts say, and it is hard to imagine that would be suddenly reversed with the death of Fidel Castro. Several Cuba scholars likened Cuba's future to the post-Mao or post-Stalin eras in China and the Soviet Union, in which other orthodox leaders took charge and the communist party remained strong amid a period of slow, gradual change.

Raúl Castro, 75, has been by his brother's side since the failed storming of the Moncada Barracks in 1953 through the victorious overthrow of US-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959. Both men were raised on the plantation of their father, a wealthy Spanish migrant who married a Cuban maid.

Raúl Castro embraced communism before Fidel, who only declared Cuba a socialist state two years after taking power, and the younger Castro was long considered a hard-liner, blamed for early crackdowns on opponents of the revolution. Raúl Castro's succession was proposed by Fidel three weeks after the elder Castro took power in 1959, and later enshrined in the constitution.

In charge of operations of the 50,000-strong military, Raúl Castro took advantage of generous Soviet assistance to transform an insurgent militia into one of the most admired military forces in the developing world, with a role in conflicts in Vietnam, Angola, and Ethiopia.

When the collapse of the Soviet Union ended its subsidies to Cuba, and sparked a financial crisis on the island, Raúl Castro took on the mantle of an economic pragmatist, promoting mixed-economy liberalizations in the mid-'90s, some of which have since been rolled back.

Observers say he lacks the charisma, romanticism, and tireless energy that underpin his brother's mystique and enduring success. Some ordinary Cubans loyal to or in awe of Fidel Castro say they don't have the same respect for or fear of his brother.

Still, ``Raúl has an enormous amount of power and authority accumulated over the last 40 years. . . . And his inclination will be to hold the reins really tight," said Julia Sweig, director of the Latin America program at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington and author of ``Inside the Cuban Revolution."

Yet Sweig said that to view the post- Fidel era as a ``Raúl regime" would be a mistake. In a statement read on Cuban television Monday night by Fidel's personal secretary, Castro named not only his brother as the acting president of the Council of State, commander of the armed forces, and secretary general of the communist party, but also specified a handful of loyal ministers to take charge of health, education, energy, and finance.

``This is not the end of the Fidel regime at all. It's the prolongation of it," Sweig said.

Sweig and other analysts noted that because of generous oil assistance Cuba receives from Fidel Castro's main ally, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, Raúl Castro will have little incentive to promote economic or political reforms of the type advocated by Washington and dissidents at home. But without such reforms, the regime could face new challenges in the absence of Fidel Castro.

The Bush administration greeted the news of Raúl Castro's anointment with disdain yesterday.

``The fact that you have an autocrat handing off power to his brother does not mark the end to autocracy," White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

US law prohibits recognition of a Cuban government headed by either Castro brother, and while certain lawmakers from both parties have pressed to loosen US restrictions against Cuba, that is unlikely under a Bush White House and Republican-controlled Congress.

US Representative James P. McGovern, a Worcester Democrat who has met Castro several times, said the economic embargo has prevented the United States from taking advantage of what could be a historic political transition in the communist nation.

``For the past 47 years, the United States has pursued a failed policy," he said. ``It's not resulted in the isolation of Cuba, it's only resulted in the isolation of the United States from Cuba."

Susan Milligan of the Globe staff contributed to this report from Washington.