In choice of new leader, possible shift from US
BAGHDAD -- The Shi'ite Islamist-led coalition that won the most seats by far in Iraq's new parliament is engaged in a fierce internal debate over who should be prime minister, a choice that could determine how confrontational the new government might be toward the United States and the 130,000 US troops expected to remain in Iraq.
Beaming with victory and wielding a mandate from more than 4 million voters, the leaders of the United Iraqi Alliance, a collection of religious Shi'ite parties and independents endorsed by Iraq's most revered cleric, say they will insist that the post goes to one of them, not to the US-backed interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi.
Allawi still believes he has a chance if the Shi'ite bloc cannot agree on a candidate, but the prime minister will more likely come from a pool of nominees within the Shi'ite slate -- none of whom fits the unambiguously secular, pro-American mold that US officials might have considered ideal.
The Shi'ite politicians view that as a welcome change from last June, when Allawi's government was handpicked by US and United Nations officials.
The two most likely candidates, Adil Abdel-Mahdi and Dr. Ibrahim Jaafari, hold high posts in Allawi's interim government and have worked closely with the United States since the invasion in 2003. But they represent Shi'ite religious parties with close ties to Iran that call for a greater role for Islam in society. And although their leaders insist they do not want an Iran-style theocracy, they have also called for laws to be subject to religious review by an unspecified authority.
Issuing the sharpest challenges to US policies in Iraq is Ahmed Chalabi, who, in a remarkable series of political reversals, began as the Pentagon's closest Iraqi ally, fell out dramatically with US officials last year, and now has reemerged as a dark-horse candidate. He regained clout by allying himself with Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose militia clashed repeatedly with US troops last year in Najaf and Baghdad's Sadr City.
In recent interviews, all three candidates criticized policies launched under Allawi's US- approved government, especially on the crucial issue of security.
While US officials have praised Allawi's moves to bring some experienced former members of Hussein's security forces back onto the job, the Alliance has attacked Allawi for providing a haven to unrepentant Ba'athists, and vowed to purge the government when it takes charge.
The candidates say that what they call ''re-Ba'athification" has not lessened insurgent killings. Instead, they say the policy has helped the rebels by allowing their allies to further infiltrate the security forces.
US officials have envisioned very close cooperation between US military and Iraqi security forces in the coming year. But Chalabi, in an interview at his heavily guarded compound, said he would take things in the opposite direction.
Iraqi forces, he said, must be placed under the direct control of Iraqi commanders and the Iraqi government, and Iraqis must take charge of recruiting.
Abdel-Mahdi and Jaafari have hewed closer to the US line, saying that the United States cannot reduce its security role until Iraqi forces are better trained.
But in a recent interview, Abdel-Mahdi, too, grew emotional about the failure so far to stop the insurgency and, treading on sensitive ground, framed the issue as one that disproportionately affects Shi'ites.
He recalled a recent massacre of several dozen Iraqi National Guardsmen, executed by insurgents as they drove home, unarmed, in a bus.
''Tell me why," he said. ''Who is responsible for this?
''We are frustrated. We have been attacked, assassinated, killed, car bombs. Then the people are killed, and when they are killed, 90 percent of them are Shi'a. Ninety percent of them, of those National Guards. There is something wrong there."
Since the United Iraqi Alliance took an early lead in the vote count, there has been a flurry of backroom negotiations as the party tries to form a consensus around one candidate, meeting at one another's houses over endless cups of tea.
Jaafari, 55, has consistently polled as the most popular politician in Iraq, with a reputation for kindness and moderation. Of the three candidates, he spent the most of his adult life in Iraq before fleeing into exile. He is not part of the Baghdad elite, having grown up in Karbala, where his father tended the shrine of Imam Hussein.
By contrast, Abdel-Mahdi and Chalabi grew up in the same upper-class circles as Allawi; all three went to school together at the Jesuit Baghdad College, once affiliated with Boston College.
Jaafari, currently serving as interim president, fled Iraq in 1980 after a death warrant was issued for his work in the Dawa Party. He spent 10 years in Iran, then moved to London. ''I have offered my life to my people. I think politics is holy," he said.
Regarded as perhaps the most devout of the three, he refused to be nailed down on how closely constitutional law should be based on the Koran, saying parliament should decide.
Extreme forms of Islamist rule, such as Saudi Arabia's, wouldn't work in Iraq, he said, pointing out that his wife, too, is a doctor.
''She goes to the hospital and cuts open people's abdomens. How could I support a law that says she can't drive a car? It's not logical."
His top aide, Adnan Ali al-Kadhimi, said there should be a council that would review laws to make sure they don't contradict Islam. But it wouldn't be a council of clerics with ultimate say over the laws, like in Iran, he said; rather it would be an advisory group of religious and secular legal experts.
Abdel-Mahdi, too, spent time in Iran, where he helped organize the Badr Brigades, the militia wing of his party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq.
But he is one of the Alliance's strongest proponents of a constitution that uses the Koran only as one source, not the only source, of legislation. As finance minister, he helped renegotiate Iraq's debt.
He says former Ba'athist insurgents can't be co-opted with jobs.
Instead, he said, the government should look for people loyal to the new order, including members of the Badr Brigades. The group, which some Iraqis fear because of its Iranian ties, has not been heavily recruited by Allawi's government and under current law is not allowed to carry out security operations independently.
''Badr is a disciplined organization, and we are not going to raise our arms because we are attacked," he said. ''We have to work with the government. We have to be patient."
Chalabi, 60, proudly calls himself the least patient of the three. He wants to see the tens of thousands of foreign security contractors, who drive around with guns bristling, brought under control of Iraqi law or thrown out. He resents millions being spent for them to guard foreign companies carrying out reconstruction. He wants the United States to vacate the Green Zone and Iraq's Republican Palace, now a wide swath of central Baghdad off limits to most Iraqis.
He portrays himself as close to Shi'ite religious hierarchy yet is the most Westernized of the three, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology graduate and a technophile. Illustrating the balance all three are trying to strike, Chalabi's adviser listed the tunes on his iPod: Bach. Islamic mystical music. And the pop band Train. 