US advisers warn threat of civil war mounting in Iraq

WASHINGTON -- Describing the situation in Iraq as ''very tenuous," President Bush's top intelligence advisers warned in a blunt assessment yesterday that mounting violence between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims there could spark a full-blown civil war unless a unified government can quickly take the reins of the country.

Bush decried the continuing attacks nearly a week after the Askariya Shrine in Samarra, sacred to Shi'ites, was destroyed, setting off a series of reprisals that have claimed hundreds of lives. At least 76 people were reported killed in violence yesterday.

''Obviously there are some who are trying to sow the seeds of sectarian violence," Bush told reporters in the Oval Office before leaving on a five-day trip to India and Pakistan. ''And now, the people of Iraq and their leaders must make a choice. The choice is chaos or unity, the choice is a free society, or a society dictated by evil people who would kill innocents."

In a detailed assessment of the current situation, the nation's top intelligence officials warned Congress that the mounting violence between the majority Shi'ites and minority Sunnis would probably continue and could ignite a civil war unless the country's leaders quickly form a government. The leaders were chosen in national elections in December that saw a large turnout of Shi'ite, Sunni, and Kurdish voters, but their efforts have been hobbled by deep divisions.

Lieutenant General Michael Maples, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, stressed that the situation has not yet devolved into civil war, but ''I believe that the underlying conditions are present," he told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

''The level of sectarian violence increased significantly on the ground based on the bombings of the mosque," Maples told lawmakers. ''I think we should take heart in the leaders who have come forward at this point, but we're also at a very tenuous situation right now. I think that more violence, were it to occur, were it to be stimulated by Al Qaeda in Iraq, would have a very significant impact on the situation in Iraq."

John D. Negroponte, the director of national intelligence, also said that the violence between Sunni insurgents and Shi'ite militias would probably continue, with potentially catastrophic implications -- not just for Iraq but for the entire region.

Negroponte, the nation's top intelligence official, said that a civil war -- including the loss of central government control and the disintegration or deterioration of the Iraqi security forces of the country -- could pit the rival Sunni and Shi'ite sects across the Muslim world against one another. Sunnis make up the vast majority of the world's estimated 1.2 billion Muslims.

''If chaos were to descend upon Iraq, or the forces of democracy were to be defeated in that country, . . . this would have implications for the rest of the Middle East region and, indeed, the world," said Negroponte, who served as US ambassador to Baghdad before taking over as the first director of national intelligence in April 2005. To help avoid a civil war in Iraq, Negroponte said, Iraq's leaders must cobble together a unified government quickly, adding that a delay in establishing an inclusive Iraqi government ''could have the effect of prolonging the insurgency."

The newly elected 275-member Iraqi National Assembly missed the Saturday deadline set by the Iraqi Constitution to begin deliberations. An interim Iraqi government, widely seen as weak and favoring Iraq's Shi'ites, is still overseeing the affairs of state.

''They missed that critical deadline with apparently, and regrettably, no comment from us," said the armed services panel's top Democrat, Senator Carl Levin of Michigan. ''The Iraqi leaders are feuding while Baghdad is burning."

Indeed, while trying to accentuate the positive -- including the continued loyalty of Iraqi security forces to a national government and efforts by Sunni and Shi'ite leaders to quell the violence -- Negroponte warned that the opportunity for Iraqis to coalesce around a representative government is fading.

''Although the Kurds and the Shia were accommodating to the underrepresented Sunnis in 2005, their desire to protect core interests, such as regional autonomy . . . could make further compromise more difficult," he said.

Iraq's Sunnis, however, make up the largest part of the insurgency that is targeting US troops and Iraqi Shi'ites. Without their greater political participation, the fighting -- and the sanctuary given to foreign Al Qaeda fighters that are trying to sow civil war -- is bound to continue unabated, the panel was told.

''Iraqi Sunni Arab disaffection is the primary enabler of the insurgency and is likely to remain high in 2006," Negroponte said.

Lawmakers expressed concern that time is running out to find a political settlement that could ease the fighting between Iraqis.

''It is clearer than ever to me that we must act to change the current dynamic in Iraq, and that the only thing that can produce that change is a political settlement that is accepted by all the major groups," said committee chairman Senator John Warner, Republican of Virginia.

US Representative Stephen Lynch, a Democrat from South Boston who voted for the Iraq war resolution in 2002, believes that handing over more duties to the Iraqi government will help build the domestic credibility needed among Iraqis.

''They've got an elected government," said Lynch, who recently returned from his fourth fact-finding trip to Iraq. ''There is a very limited window in which we will have an opportunity to transfer power to that government." He said that opportunity must be seized within the next six months. If it is missed, there is likely to be ''no credible [Iraqi government] entity that will be there."

Bender can be reached at bender@globe.com.