Troop levels in Iraq could hold steady through 2010

WASHINGTON -- The Army is making provisions to keep at least 140,000 troops in Iraq through 2010, senior Pentagon officials said yesterday, in a stark signal that top commanders see little prospect of reducing American force levels soon and are bracing for more violence.

Pentagon officials sought to play down the projection, stressing that it does not necessarily mean that the United States will maintain current force levels for the next four years. Instead, they said, the Army -- which provides by far the most personnel to US forces in Iraq -- is simply taking prudent steps to ensure that it has sufficient units to rotate into Iraq for the foreseeable future.

``This is not a prediction that things are going poorly or better," General Peter Schoomaker , the Army chief of staff, told reporters in Washington at the annual meeting of the Association of the United States Army . ``It's just that I have to have enough ammo in the magazine that I can continue to shoot as long as they want us to shoot."

Just a few months ago, US commanders in Iraq said they were hoping to recommend a modest troop reduction -- of about two Army brigades, or up to 15,000 soldiers -- by the end of this year or in early 2007. Commanders originally had planned to reduce US forces by 100,000 by the end of 2003. Since then, they have been cautious about making predictions of any cuts, and President Bush has been adamant against setting a firm deadline for a total withdrawal.

Military officers and private analysts saw yesterday's remarks by Schoomaker as evidence that the top brass see little light at the end of the tunnel in Iraq amid worsening sectarian violence and a sudden spike in US military deaths. Schoomaker spoke on the same day that a new academic study estimated the Iraqi death toll since 2003 at more than 600,000, far higher than most estimates.

Independent analysts say the Army's planning reflected the reality that the Iraqi Army and police, which have made modest progress in providing security, have also suffered serious setbacks. They said the Iraqi forces are a long way from being ready to take the lead on security -- long considered the linchpin to an eventual US troop withdrawal.

On troop levels, the Pentagon has long made contingency plans for worst-case scenarios in Iraq, said Michael O'Hanlon, a defense specialist at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution in Washington. ``But no one would have thought the worst case could last till 2010," O'Hanlon said. ``Schoomaker is saying not only is it the worst-case, but `it is my best guess.' That is really something else."

The Iraqi death toll continues to mount. More than 100 Iraqis were found executed in a single day this week, apparent victims of an expanding sectarian war between Iraq's Shi'ite and Sunni Muslims.

Meanwhile, the growing violence has exacted a heavy toll on US troops. In September, 71 Americans were killed, the second deadliest month this year after April, when 76 died.

So far this month, an average of four US soldiers have been killed every day, a trend that if it continues would mark one of the deadliest months of the conflict, according to the Pentagon.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told reporters after Schoomaker made his comments yesterday that the planning for future deployments to Iraq goes beyond the Army. He said the US Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., and responsible for training forces from all the military branches, has briefed him on other measures that would be needed if the US deployment extends for several more years.

``We're looking around corners, up ahead, and asking ourselves how we would do things," Rumsfeld said at a Pentagon press conference that included the top US commander in Iraq, General George Casey.

Rumsfeld expressed confidence that the Army, already under strain from multiple tours to Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001, is up to the task if a large ground force is needed in Iraq for longer than previously predicted.

``The options that we have are numerous," Rumsfeld said, citing the ability to rely more heavily on the Air Force and the Navy, which are already filling some nontraditional roles in Iraq, providing security for convoys.

Casey expressed confidence that the Army, Marine Corps, and other US forces in Iraq are up to the job -- as long as it takes.

``We will succeed in Iraq, but it will take patience and will," Casey said.

Critics of the war were expected to seize on the disclosure that the Army is planning for a far longer war than predicted before the March 2003 invasion.

Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, commenting on the fourth anniversary yesterday of Congress's vote to grant Bush the authority to use force against Saddam Hussein, repeated his call for a firm deadline to begin drawing down US troops in Iraq as the only way to ensure the Iraqi government takes more responsibility.

``Today of all days, we should be having this debate, openly, honestly, and in a way that honors America's troops and our best traditions," Kerry wrote in a posting on the Internet blog HuffingtonPost.com. ``One of the things I feel most personally is that a Congress that shares responsibility for getting us into Iraq needs to take responsibility for getting us out the right way."

Military specialists agreed that unless the security situation improves or the Bush administration charts a new course in Iraq, the pressure on the Army in maintaining the mission will only grow. The United States could be forced to call on ever-larger numbers of reservists and National Guard troops. In the first year of the war, Guard and reserve troops made up more than one-third of the American force, but the Pentagon has reduced the reliance on part-time soldiers in order to free up state militias for domestic emergencies.

Retired General Jack Keane , the Army's vice chief of staff from 1999 to 2003 and now a senior adviser to Rumsfeld, said that given the situation on the ground he is not surprised that the Army is preparing to keep the current force in Iraq for the long haul.

``There may have been some planning or thought that at the end of 2006 or early 2007 we would be able to draw down some of our forces," he said. ``But the enemy has a vote, and they are absolutely convinced they can win. There seems to be no quit in them, and we have to deal with it."

Material from the Associated Press was used in this report. Bryan Bender can be reached at bender@globe.com.