Iraq may not meet goals set by Bush

WASHINGTON -- The Iraqi government is unlikely to meet any of the political and security goals President Bush set for it in January when he announced a major shift in US policy, according to senior administration officials closely involved in the matter.

As they prepare an interim report due by July 15, officials are marshaling alternative evidence of progress to persuade Congress to continue supporting the war.

In a preview of the assessment it must deliver to Congress in September, the administration will report that Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar Province are turning against the group Al Qaeda in Iraq in growing numbers; that sectarian killings were down in June; and that Iraqi political leaders managed last month to agree on a unified response to the bombing of a major religious shrine, officials said.

Those achievements are markedly different from the benchmarks Bush set when he announced his decision to send tens of thousands of additional troops to Iraq.

More troops, Bush said, would enable the Iraqis to proceed this year with provincial elections and pass a raft of power-sharing legislation. In addition, he said, the government of President Nouri al-Maliki planned to "take responsibility for security in all of Iraq's provinces by November."

Congress expanded on Bush's benchmarks, writing 18 goals into law as part of the war-funding measure it passed in the spring. Lawmakers asked for an interim report in July and set a Sept. 15 deadline for a comprehensive assessment by General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq, and Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador.

Now, as US combat deaths have escalated, violence has spread far beyond Baghdad, and sectarian political divides have deepened, the administration must persuade lawmakers to use more flexible, less ambitious standards.

But anything short of progress on the original benchmarks is unlikely to appease the growing ranks of disaffected Republican lawmakers who are urging Bush to develop a new strategy.

Although Republicans held the line this year against Democratic efforts to set a timeline for withdrawing troops, several influential GOP senators have broken with Bush in recent days, charging that his plan is failing and calling for troop redeployments starting as early as the spring.

Republican dissenters now include Senator Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, the former chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee; Senator John W. Warner of Virginia, the former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee; Senator George V. Voinovich of Ohio; Senator Pete V. Domenici of New Mexico; Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee; and Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire.

Lugar said yesterday on CNN's "Late Edition" that the United States should start reducing its military presence in Iraq. But he added that careful consideration must be given over how to do that.

The Senate is expected to start debate this week on a bill authorizing military spending in Iraq for the fiscal year starting in October. Top administration officials are aware that the stated goal of the benchmark strategy -- using US forces to create breathing space for Iraqi political reconciliation -- will not be met by September, said one person fresh from a White House meeting. But though some, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, have indicated flexibility toward other options, including early troop redeployments, Bush has made no decisions on a possible new course.

According to several administration officials who agreed to discuss the situation in Iraq only on the condition of anonymity, the political goals that seemed achievable earlier this year remain hostage to the security situation. If the extreme violence were to decline, Iraq's political paralysis might eventually subside.