Iraqi civilian deaths rose in August

BAGHDAD - Civilian deaths rose in August to their second-highest monthly level this year, according to figures compiled yesterday by the Associated Press. That raises questions about whether US strategy is working days before Congress receives landmark reports that will decide the course of the war.

At least 81 American service members also died in Iraq during August - an increase of two over the previous month but well below the year's monthly high of 126 in May. American deaths surpassed the 80 mark during only two months of 2006.

US military officials have insisted that the security plan launched early this year have brought a decrease in attacks on civilians and sectarian killings, especially in the Baghdad area, which was the focus of the new strategy.

The top American commander, General David Petraeus, is expected to cite security improvements when he and Ambassador Ryan Crocker submit reports to Congress during the week of Sept. 10.

However, figures compiled by the AP from police reports nationwide show that at least 1,809 civilians were killed across the country last month compared with 1,760 in July. That brings to 27,564 the number of Iraqi civilians killed since the AP began collecting data on April 28, 2005.

Civilian deaths reached a high point during the wave of sectarian bombings, kidnappings, and killings at the end of last year - 2,172 in December and 1,967 in the previous month.

Crocker predicted yesterday that there will be no "fundamental or quick change" in the US policy on Iraq and appealed for patience as Congress prepares to receive the reports.

Speaking in Arabic on Iraqi state television, he said the US administration believes Iraqis have made tangible progress - which Congress has demanded as a condition for continued US support.

"Since 2003, there has been a stable policy by the American administration and I don't think there will be a fundamental or quick change in the American policy or stand on Iraq," he said.

Crocker also said Iraqis "and the friends of Iraq" should show patience as the country grapples with its political and security crisis. "After 35 years of injustice under Saddam Hussein, there are some problems since liberation and the problems of 40 years cannot be solved in a year or two," he said.

President Bush ordered nearly 30,000 additional troops to Iraq, and monthly death tolls began to decline after the new security plan was launched Feb. 14. But civilian death tolls have been creeping back toward levels approaching those during the worst of the sectarian slaughter.

May was the deadliest month for Iraqi civilians this year, with 1,901 people killed in political or sectarian violence.

The August total included 520 people killed in quadruple suicide bombings on communities of Yazidis, a Kurdish-speaking religious minority, near the Syrian border. The horrific attacks made Aug. 14 the deadliest day since the war began in March 2003.

Measuring success of the troop surge is complex, and the numbers are often subject to different interpretation.

Critics have often pointed to the Vietnam War, when Viet Cong and North Vietnamese casualties far exceeded those suffered by the Americans, as an example of the limitations of numbers-based analysis.

Despite the high nationwide totals, Petraeus was quoted Friday as saying the troop increase has sharply reduced sectarian killings in Baghdad, which accounted for most of the deaths during the wave of Sunni-Shi'ite violence at the end of last year.

"If you look at Baghdad, which is hugely important because it is the center of everything in Iraq, you can see the density plot on ethno-sectarian deaths," Petraeus was quoted by The Australian newspaper.

"It's a bit macabre, but some areas were literally on fire with hundreds of bodies every week and a total of 2,100 in the month of December '06, Iraq-wide. It is still much too high but we think in August in Baghdad it will be as little as one quarter of what it was," the newspaper quoted Petraeus as saying.

Although US forces have curbed major suicide bombings, stopping small-scale atrocities has proved more challenging.

Yesterday, gunmen stormed a house in the Dora district, seizing three women and a man. The gunmen killed two of the women and fled with the two other victims.

The US command expressed hope yesterday that an order by powerful Shi'ite militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr to stand down his Mahdi Army fighters for up to six months would curb attacks on civilians and allow US troops to step up the fight against Al Qaeda.

The government-run newspaper Sabah published a front-page editorial yesterday praising Sadr's declaration as "a correct decision" and urged other militia leaders to follow suit.

Sunni Arab leaders have accused the Mahdi Army for massacring thousands of Sunnis during the past three years and driving tens of thousands of others from their homes.