Hard-liners predict a sweep in Iran's parliamentary vote

Iranians read newspapers in Qom, the center of Iran's clerical establishment, on the eve of the nation's parliamentary elections. The Guardian Council, an unelected body of clerics and jurists, has disqualified about 1,700 candidates, most of whom were reformists. (VAHID SALEMI/ASSOCIATED PRESS)

QOM, Iran - Ali Farahani smiled as he talked about today's parliamentary elections in Iran. The young cleric in this spiritual center of the Islamic revolution said the vote will sweep the country closer to hard-liners' ideal of the Islamic state.

In Tehran, computer technician Hadi Rezaei, a supporter of democratic reforms, sees little hope and no reason to vote.

Conservatives, particularly allies of hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, are expected to maintain the domination of Parliament they have had since 2004. If they do so by a strong margin, it would demonstrate the Islamic leadership's ability to ward off a comeback by reformists.

Ahead of the vote, the Guardian Council - an unelected body of clerics and jurists - disqualified about 1,700 candidates, mostly reformists. Those barred from running were judged insufficiently loyal to Islam or the revolution.

As a result, reformists have said they are not running in as many as 200 of the 290 races around the country. Many of the reform candidates who were allowed to compete are little-known.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threw his support behind hard-liners. In a speech Wednesday, he called on voters to support candidates who are opposed to the United States and "whose loyalties are to Islam and justice."

In Qom, Farahani said Ahmadinejad's government is moving ahead.

"Some may criticize that it hasn't reached the goal, but it is in motion, and that is good," Farahani said. "The motion should not be stopped. Conservatives are right, society is in a process of change. The Islamic revolution's principles are Islam's principles - justice, protection of human dignity."

Qom, 80 miles south of Tehran, is the heartland of Iran's clerical establishment, where most top ayatollahs are based. The clerics that emerge from its seminaries fill some senior government positions and the unelected bodies that oversee the government, such as the Guardian Council.

The disqualifications of candidates have divided reform supporters. Some have decided to boycott the vote.

"We can't bring deep democratic changes within the ruling establishment through the ballot box," the 29-year-old Rezaei said. "I used to vote for reformers, but it didn't work. The Guardian Council has already decided the elections."

But reform leaders are pressing their supporters to go to the polls, hoping that with a large turnout they can at least build a strong minority in Parliament, rather than the handful of seats they now have.

"It is not a fair or free election, but I will still vote," said Ahmad Moshkelati, who writes for the pro-reform newspaper Mardomsalari, or Democracy. "Boycotting the vote only strengthens hard-liners and further weakens reformers."

Campaigning, which ended yesterday, has been without fanfare. The vote is taking place amid widespread discontent with Ahmadinejad's government because of high inflation and unemployment.

Ahmadinejad also has disillusioned some conservative supporters, who say that his anti-Western rhetoric has hurt Iran, and that he has not brought more moderate conservatives into the decision-making process.

Moderate conservatives appear not to have coalesced into a strong force in the campaign. A list of candidates, called the Inclusive Coalition of Principlists, includes several conservative critics of Ahmadinejad. But top figures considered moderate conservatives, such as former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and former nuclear negotiator Hasan Rowhani, have not come out to campaign for the list.

Ahmadinejad's allies have mostly joined another slate of candidates, known as the United Front of Principlists, a name that refers to their adherence to the principles of the Islamic revolution.

About 4,500 candidates nationwide are running for Parliament's 290 seats in today's vote.

Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi said 45,000 polling stations will open for an election in which an estimated 44 million Iranians are eligible to vote.

Turnout may be a key issue in the results. In 2004 elections, which were swept by hard-liners after most reform candidates were barred from the race, turnout was about 51 percent. In previous votes won by reformists, it was closer to 80 percent.