Partial tally shows Karzai with slim lead over challenger

With just over half a million votes - 10 percent of the ballots - counted, Karzai had captured 40 percent and Abdullah 38 percent.

The tensely awaited preliminary results, released shortly after Abdullah produced apparent evidence of election fraud by Karzai’s team, contrasted sharply with a claim Monday night by an aide to Karzai that he had won at least 68 percent of the vote. The numbers, though far from conclusive, also suggest that Karzai may not win outright and that the two men will face a runoff in October.

In a possible sign that the ballot-counting and vetting process is working better than expected, the results roughly mirror opinion polls before the election that showed Karzai likely to win 40 percent and Abdullah, a former foreign minister, about 25 percent.

However, Abdullah’s detailed charges of what he called systematic, government-orchestrated election fraud raised new questions about the credibility of an election that is a pivotal event for Afghanistan’s fragile democracy and for US and NATO officials as they struggle to decide how much deeper and longer their military commitment here should be.

Abdullah showed journalists tablets of multiple paper ballots yesterday marked with identical checks for Karzai, and video clips said to show polling stations after election day where people were seated on the floor, checking one ballot after another and cracking jokes about it.

“There is now no doubt that state-engineered fraud has been underway,’’ said Abdullah, adding that he had received specific complaints of government interference and rigging from people in several provinces.

“It was engineered to steal the vote by the incumbent, by Mr. Karzai. That we will not allow, and we will use all legal means to prevent it.’’

The candidate called on his followers to be patient and calm, and to wait for the election review process to be completed. He said he would not accept any political deals in exchange for dropping his accusations, and he called on the international community to press for a thorough accounting of the election results. “We must prevent fraud from making our future,’’ Abdullah said.

At least 15 million voters were registered to vote in the election. A candidate would have to win at least 50.1 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff.

The United States and NATO are at a critical turning point in their strategy for fighting the Taliban. They are counting on a legitimate election and a strengthened government in Kabul to bolster their arguments that the country needs continued military and economic support.

Election officials recently asked candidates not to claim victory before official tallies were ready, but aides for both Abdullah and Karzai have asserted that they received overwhelming support.

In interviews this week, elected officials and other sources from several southern provinces described numerous cases in which only a few voters turned out at polling places because of threats and violence from Taliban insurgents; full ballot boxes containing hundreds of votes were later delivered to Kabul for counting. They said they were certain local elections officials or other pro-Karzai groups had stuffed the boxes.

Officials overseeing the investigation of election complaints have said they are confident they can catch as much as 90 percent of the fraud, using computer analysis and other modern techniques.